How Will Walmart’s Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

[Note: Walmart’s Fiscal Year 2025 ended on January 31, 2025]

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 15, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of 58 cents per share on $164.47 billion in revenue. This would represent an 8% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 2% increase in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of 63 cents per share and $161.51 billion in revenue. Historically, WMT stock has increased 50% of the time following earnings announcements with a median one-day rise of 3.6% and a maximum observed increase of 7%.

Walmart’s management recently highlighted that persistent tariffs and the resulting uncertainty are creating significant challenges in maintaining profit margins and accurately projecting future profitability. Rising costs are expected to pressure the company’s bottom line, reflecting the wider impact of sustained inflation and renewed economic volatility on consumer spending. Despite these headwinds, Walmart remains financially robust, with a current market capitalization of $774 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $681 billion in revenue, achieved $27 billion in operating profit, and posted a net income of $16 billion.

For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

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Walmart’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.4%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

WMT Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Walmart stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Walmart. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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