How Will Verizon Communications Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) is set to report its earnings on Monday, July 21, 2025. Earnings are expected to come in at about $1.20 per share, per consensus estimates, while revenues are likely to grow by about 3% to $33.55 billion driven by higher pricing on its wireless plans as well as higher subscriber numbers compared to the year-ago quarter. That said, Verizon has been underperforming its peers of late. Over Q1, the company lost 289,000 mobile subscribers due to less aggressive promotions compared to rivals in a saturating U.S. wireless market. That said, broadband should remain a bright spot for the company. Over Q1, Verizon added 339,000 internet customers, driven by its fixed wireless offering and fiber plans bundled with its wireless services.

The company has $173 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $135 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $29 billion in operating profits and net income of $18 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Verizon Communications’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.4%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.6%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Verizon Communications, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.

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