Vistra Stock To $105?
Vistra (VST) stock has fallen by 17.3% in less than a month, from $176.58 on 26th Feb, 2026 to $146.02 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $105 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Vistra Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on VST stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 31%, with median peak return reaching 69%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 10.9% |
| 3M | 30.0% |
| 6M | 36.1% |
| 12M | 30.7% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
VST had 4 events since 5/10/2017 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 69% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 334 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -9.8% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | VST Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | VST | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 31% | 69% | -10% | 334 | ||||
| 2272025 | -24% | 0% | 29% | 69% | -24% | 207 | ||
| 7252024 | -23% | 1% | 196% | 186% | -2% | 363 | ||
| 2262021 | -21% | 0% | 31% | 37% | -7% | 320 | ||
| 3122020 | -34% | -24% | 30% | 69% | -13% | 349 | ||
Vistra Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 3.0% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 9.1% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 22.9% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 2.1 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 0.8 |
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