Should You Buy And Hold Vistra Stock?

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

Vistra (VST) stock has lost 27.0% over the past twelve months, trailing the 13.7% return of the S&P 500, even as the company’s sales grew. Buyers now pay 16.6 times earnings. That compares with an average P/E of 29.0 at the stock’s last 12 fiscal quarter-ends. So what could you make by buying Vistra now and holding it for three years?

What Would Three Years Of Owning Vistra Return?

Buying Vistra today and holding it three years would return about 47.6%, or 13.8% a year with dividends not counted, under a specific baseline scenario. This outcome assumes revenue grows 16.8% a year, a rate set at 85% of the pace Vistra posted over the twelve months to September 2026, and that the P/E stays at today’s level. The table sets Vistra today beside the scenario three years out.

All of that gain comes from higher sales, and none from the P/E. For a sense of where those sales come from, Vistra’s largest segment, retail, brought in $14.3 billion in fiscal 2025, climbing 12.1% from a year earlier.

Where Vistra’s Sales Growth Has Come From

Vistra’s revenue rose 27.7% from a year earlier to reach $6.35 billion in fiscal Q3 2026. Management said its power plants earned more adjusted EBITDA, its own profit measure, than a year earlier. They said this was mainly because realized prices were more than 10% higher per megawatt hour, capacity revenue rose, its gas plants were run to suit market conditions, Martin Lake Unit 1 restarted and the plants bought from Lotus contributed.

Vistra is also adding plants and contracts. The company closed the purchase of Cogentrix, which holds about 5,500 megawatts of natural gas capacity, on October 30, 2026. Management gave no revenue forecast with its third-quarter results. The company’s fiscal 2027 guide of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA includes Cogentrix and the Perry nuclear plant’s power contract with Meta.

Management also said ERCOT power prices in Texas have been trending lower, though it still expects load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT through 2030.

How Would Your Vistra Return Change In Other Scenarios?

The table shows the return when one assumption changes and the other two stay as they are in the scenario. The last row keeps all three and stretches the holding period to five years.

Part of the gain from sales is given back because the net margin the scenario uses is 70% of today’s margin plus 30% of the lower three-year average. Vistra also starts from a high point. The company’s revenue grew 19.8% in the twelve months to September 2026, compared with 5.7% in the twelve months before. And part of today’s profit is on paper: the $1.14 billion Vistra earned in fiscal Q3 2026 included $559 million of unrealized gains on hedges that settle in future years.

With the other assumptions unchanged from the scenario, three years of owning Vistra would return nothing if its revenue grew 2.6% a year. That pace falls below the 4.5% the company posted in the twelve months to September 2024. The return would also be zero at a net margin of 8.3%, and Vistra’s twelve-month margin sat at 5.3% as recently as the period ended December 2025. A P/E of 11.2 three years out would likewise leave the return at zero. The stock traded at 9.2 times earnings at the end of 2023.

Vistra’s revenue growth over twelve months, and the net margin it earns on those sales, are the figures to watch when it reports fourth-quarter 2026 results, expected in February 2027.

Not Sure Vistra Is Worth It At This Price?

You don’t have to bet on one stock to earn. The Trefis Income Solution owns 50 dividend stocks that yield about 3x the S&P 500, each with at least 10 straight years of dividends.

See If It Fits Your Plan

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.