What Could Surprise Vistra Stock Investors On The Upside?

Vistra (VST) stock lost 28.4% over the past year, while the S&P 500 returned 17.4%. Yet the power producer has continued signing long contracts with some of the largest electricity users, ranging from Meta to a closely watched Texas data center project. Management expects those agreements to yield more than it has counted in its forecasts so far, and investors who still hold the stock may be betting on that outcome. So what are Vistra’s power customers paying for?

Big Power Users Want Electricity From Vistra’s Existing Plants

These customers are paying for electricity from plants Vistra already runs, and some will pay more than the market price for it. Management said on the August 7, 2026 call that large load customers want to contract at a premium with existing facilities, because that option remains a discount to what new construction would require.

Vistra’s nuclear sites in the PJM market offer the clearest example. Meta signed long-term power purchase agreements for those locations, and management expects a premium above market rates under the terms.

Texas is seeing long contracts too. In September, New Era Energy & Digital signed a 20-year agreement with a Vistra affiliate to power the first phase of its Texas Critical Data Center, for a minimum of 200 MW. Vistra has also joined KKR, NVIDIA and the Kuwait Investment Authority as a founding investor in Helix Digital Infrastructure, where it will be the preferred power partner.

How Much Could Vistra Gain From These Deals?

Management put the combined gain for the Meta premium and the pending purchase of Cogentrix at roughly $700 million of adjusted EBITDA, its preferred measure of cash earnings. The company’s 2027 guidance range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion leaves both factors out. Added to the middle of that range, the extra would lift 2027 by about 9%, though part of that increase comes from buying Cogentrix rather than from the contracts.

That is a meaningful step for a stock that trades at 22.7 times its earnings over the past twelve months, close to the 22.9 for the S&P 500.

Vistra Faces Softer Power Prices In Texas

The premium comes on top of a base that is weakening in Texas. Management said current forward prices in ERCOT, the Texas power market, are meaningfully lower than on October 31, 2025, the prices its 2027 range was built on. Higher prices in PJM and Vistra’s hedges do not fully offset that decline, so management expects 2027 to trend toward the lower end of the range.

Texas data centers also face scrutiny. Vistra was asked on the August call about audits of Texas data centers and possible delays, and management said it supports the governor’s talks with the data center community.

Vistra’s updated 2027 adjusted EBITDA range, due with its third-quarter report expected on or around November 6, 2026, is the number to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On VST?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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