How Has Vertiv’s Story Changed?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Vertiv (VRT) stock trades at 43.3 times its earnings over the last twelve months, against 22.8 for the S&P 500. Shareholders paying that price need to know what they are buying, but the story management tells has changed. Management highlighted trailing twelve-month organic orders growth of about 21% on its fiscal Q3 2025 call. A year later, it emphasizes something else. So what does management talk up now instead?
Vertiv’s Management Now Talks Up Factory Capacity
During its fiscal Q3 2026 call on October 28, 2026, management said it is “not planning to share orders data going forward.” Management added that third-quarter orders were up more than 100% year on year, but the call’s emphasis was on building. Vertiv is investing heavily in new capacity around the world to serve customers and work through a robust backlog, management said, and it is on track to double chiller production capacity by year end. Management also highlighted work with NVIDIA on systems that it said cut deployment time by up to half.
Orders mattered because they showed demand ahead of sales. On the fiscal Q4 2025 call in February 2026, management said trailing twelve-month organic orders growth was 81%, with fourth-quarter orders alone up 252% year over year, organically. During that call, management put the book-to-bill ratio, which measures orders against sales, at 2.9 times.
How Big Are Vertiv’s Orders Next To Revenue?
In February 2026, Vertiv’s order backlog amounted to about 1.5 times a year of its revenue. On the February 11, 2026 call, management put the backlog at $15 billion against the $10.2 billion of revenue Vertiv reported for fiscal 2025.
Orders are still growing faster than sales. Management said third-quarter orders rose more than 100% year on year, while organic sales grew about 55%. With acquisitions included, reported revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 was $4.31 billion, up 61.2% from a year earlier.
The factories management now talks about are where the backlog turns into revenue. After raising its guidance across all key metrics, management now expects net sales of $14.7 billion at the midpoint for all of 2026.
Should Vertiv Holders Worry About Losing Orders Data?
The change is a concern for a holder, though not about the company’s strong results. The concern is that the figure that showed demand earliest is going away while the stock is priced well above the market. From now on, holders will read demand mostly from sales and guidance, which come after orders rather than ahead of them.
The stock has already shown how hard it can swing: from May 5 to November 3, 2026, it lost 30.8% while the S&P 500 gained 4.8%.
Management offered some comfort on the latest call, saying Vertiv counts only purchase orders in its backlog, not capacity agreements, and that the shape of the backlog has not changed dramatically.
When the company reports, expected in February 2027, Vertiv’s fiscal Q4 2026 sales, guided to about $4.4 billion, and whatever management says about its backlog are what to watch.
Beyond VRT: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on VRT, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.