How Will Universal Health Services Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Universal Health Services (NYSE:UHS) is set to report its earnings on Monday, April 27, 2026. The company has $11 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $17 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.0 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.5 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Universal Health Services’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 56% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 4.2%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -5.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | -11.4% | -12.2% | -19.7% |
| 10/28/2025 | 2.5% | 3.1% | 13.9% |
| 7/29/2025 | 5.1% | 6.3% | 17.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | 3.3% | -1.2% | 3.7% |
| 10/25/2024 | -9.8% | -9.1% | -11.9% |
| 7/25/2024 | 10.2% | 14.9% | 23.3% |
| 2/27/2024 | -2.4% | 6.0% | 9.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 13.5% |
| 7/26/2023 | -5.5% | -6.9% | -12.8% |
| 2/27/2023 | -8.4% | -13.6% | -15.2% |
| 10/25/2022 | 13.1% | 21.3% | 34.1% |
| 7/26/2022 | -0.7% | 0.1% | -5.9% |
| 2/24/2022 | 6.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| 10/26/2021 | -5.6% | -6.6% | -2.8% |
| 7/27/2021 | 2.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 6.0% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -8.0% | -12.3% |
| Max Positive | 13.1% | 21.3% | 34.1% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -13.6% | -19.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 50.8% | 75.9% | 58.9% |
| 3Y History | 30.7% | 77.5% | 78.0% |
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