Can Tripadvisor Break Its Earnings Slump?

Tripadvisor stock (NASDAQ: TRIP) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of 5 cents per share on $388 million in revenue. This would represent a 58% year-over-year decline in adjusted earnings and a 2% fall in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of 12 cents per share and $395 million in revenue. Historically, the TRIP stock has shown a tendency to underperform following earnings announcements, having declined 70% of the time with a median one-day drop of 7.7% and a maximum observed decline of 29%.

The company’s strategic emphasis on the Experiences category has yielded positive results, with both the Viator and TheFork segments continuing to deliver strong performance. In contrast, the Brand Tripadvisor segment is facing a downward trend, reflecting headwinds in its traditional business model. Looking ahead, the company anticipates sustained momentum in the Viator segment, projecting mid to high-teens growth in booking volume. TheFork is also expected to deliver low double-digit revenue growth. However, Brand Tripadvisor is forecast to see a modest revenue decline in the low single-digits. As of now, the company holds a market capitalization of $1.9 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $1.8 billion in revenue and maintained operational profitability, with $92 million in operating income and a GAAP net income of $5 million.

For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

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Tripadvisor’s  Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 14 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 30% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 6 positive returns = 7.2%, and median of the 14 negative returns = -7.7%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

TRIP Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Tripadvisor stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Tripadvisor. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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