What To Watch For In Tripadvisor’s Stock Post Q2?

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Tripadvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP), an online travel company providing booking for hotel reservations, transportation, lodging, travel experiences, and restaurants, is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter results on Thursday, August 4. We expect Tripadvisor’s stock to likely see little movement due to mixed Q4 results with revenues coming slightly below expectations and earnings matching estimates. The company’s stock is down almost 30% this year on the back of anxiety over a potential recession, staffing issues with airlines, and higher interest rates. The broader concern over the global economy’s health and renewed Covid restrictions in some regions of China gave rise to worries that travel demand could decline over the coming quarters after rebounding this summer.

Our forecast indicates that Tripadvisor’s valuation is at $19 per share, which is only 2% less than the current market price. Look at our interactive dashboard analysis on Tripadvisor Earnings Preview: What To Expect in Q2? for more details.

(1) Revenues expected to come slightly below consensus estimates

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Trefis estimates Tripadvisor’s Q2 2022 revenues to be around $390 Mil, slightly below the consensus estimate. The company managed to double its revenues year-over-year (y-o-y) to $262 million, driven by a recovery in the tourism sector in Q1. Of its two business segments, experiences and dining saw a large improvement, with its revenues rising by almost 230% y-o-y to $92 million. Hotels, media, and platform revenues grew 82% y-o-y. For the full year 2022, we expect Tripadvisor revenues to rise 56% y-o-y to $1.4 billion.

(2) EPS likely to match consensus estimates

Tripadvisor’s Q2 2022 earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at 25 cents as per Trefis analysis, matching the consensus estimate. Although the company didn’t quite climb into profitability, it managed to narrow its bottom-line loss per share from -$0.59 in Q1 2021 to -$0.24 in Q1 2022.

(3) Stock price estimate appropriately priced to current market price

Going by our Tripadvisor’s Valuation, with an EPS estimate of around 92 cents and a P/E multiple of around 21.0x in fiscal 2022, this translates into a price of $19, 2% lower than the current market price.

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. TRIP Peers shows how Tripadvisor’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 TRIP Return 2% -29% -58%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -15% 82%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% -13% 242%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/3/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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