How Will Targa Resources Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Targa Resources (NYSE:TRGP) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $56 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $17 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.9 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Targa Resources’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 70% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 14 positive returns = 2.4%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -3.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.5% | 1.1% | 5.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | 5.3% | 12.1% | 16.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.4% | 2.3% | -0.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -5.0% | -7.0% | -7.6% |
| 2/20/2025 | -2.7% | -5.6% | -5.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 4.8% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.6% | -1.5% | 8.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| 2/15/2024 | 5.6% | 11.3% | 20.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.2% | -0.9% | 7.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 0.8% | 3.8% | 6.3% |
| 5/4/2023 | -2.9% | -0.8% | 0.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 3.1% | 1.1% | -6.9% |
| 11/3/2022 | 4.0% | 2.0% | 12.2% |
| 8/4/2022 | -5.4% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.3% | -11.8% | -0.9% |
| 2/24/2022 | 1.6% | 10.5% | 19.2% |
| 11/4/2021 | 1.8% | -0.3% | -6.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 2.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% |
| 5/6/2021 | 2.0% | 3.6% | 27.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.7% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -1.2% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 15.2% | 27.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -11.8% | -7.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 12.9% | 13.6% | 6.7% |
| 3Y History | 21.4% | 42.9% | -8.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Targa Resources stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Targa Resources. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRGP Earnings Dates | TRGP | WMB | KMI | HESM |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.5% | 4.8% | 15.0% | 9.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 5.3% | -2.5% | -4.9% | -1.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.4% | -3.9% | -3.1% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -5.0% | N/A* | -1.4% | -1.3% |
| 2/20/2025 | -2.7% | 6.6% | -12.7% | 0.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | 4.8% | N/A* | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.6% | N/A* | 4.0% | -1.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | 0.5% | N/A* | 5.6% | -1.0% |
| 2/15/2024 | 5.6% | 3.4% | -1.8% | 0.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| 5/4/2023 | -2.9% | 0.5% | -3.9% | 2.6% |
| 2/22/2023 | 3.1% | 0.4% | N/A* | -8.1% |
| 11/3/2022 | 4.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| 8/4/2022 | -5.4% | -6.1% | 1.4% | -3.5% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.3% | N/A* | -3.2% | 1.2% |
| 2/24/2022 | 1.6% | 1.5% | N/A* | 7.8% |
| 11/4/2021 | 1.8% | -0.9% | -8.8% | -0.1% |
| 8/5/2021 | 2.4% | 0.6% | -3.2% | 1.8% |
| CORRELATION | 12.4% | -41.0% | 17.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after TRGP
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