Cannabis Stocks’ Biggest Vote Is In Massachusetts

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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.

Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of winning the House on Tuesday, and about three in four of taking the Senate. Pot stocks have rallied on election hopes before. This time half of these stocks are down hard, and most of the decisions that matter aren’t on the federal ballot.

Company	Value	12-month return	What moves it	Exposure to the vote
Curaleaf (CURA)	about $2.4B	+8%	Rescheduling; big in Massachusetts	Medium
Trulieve (TRUL)	about $2B	up	Rescheduling and the 280E tax; Florida	Low-medium
Tilray (TLRY)	$340M	−81%	Canadian cannabis, beer, drinks	Low
Canopy Growth (CGC)	$286M	−45%	Cash; Canada; a U.S. holding structure	Low

The two Canadian names everyone knows are now the smallest. The U.S. operators are bigger, and they’re the ones Washington touches.

Tilray is 82% below its 52-week high, and Canopy trades at about 68 cents a share.

See more lines: data notes

Tilray and Canopy values and returns are at the Nov 2 close (Trefis market data; Tilray’s return is adjusted for its reverse split). Curaleaf and Trulieve trade in Canada and over the counter in the U.S.; their values and returns use the U.S. close and shares outstanding; Trulieve’s are approximate. Exposure is our judgment of how much Tuesday’s results can change each company’s revenue or taxes.

Who Decides Rescheduling?

The Justice Department and the DEA, not Congress. In April, the acting Attorney General moved state-licensed medical cannabis to Schedule III. A DEA hearing on moving all marijuana ran from June 29 to July 15, and the judge has allowed more briefs, with replies due Nov 5. A judge’s recommendation, then the DEA’s final decision, come next. No date is set.

Why it matters: Schedule III would end the 280E tax rule, which bars cannabis sellers from deducting normal business costs. For U.S. operators like Trulieve and Curaleaf, that’s the single biggest swing in profits. Tuesday’s vote doesn’t move it.

Investors have learned this lesson. On the day of the April order, Tilray closed down 12% and Curaleaf down 24%. Good news on paper, sold anyway.

Does A Democratic House Pass SAFE Banking?

It might, but that was never the problem. The bill would let banks serve cannabis companies. It has passed the House several times and has never had a Senate floor vote. Leaders of both parties have kept it off the floor. A Democratic Senate would help only if its leader brings it up and the President signs it. Neither is certain.

What’s Actually On Tuesday’s Ballot?

This year, state ballots are about pulling back, not opening up.

Massachusetts votes on ending recreational sales. Medical cannabis would stay. The state’s adult-use market is about $1.65 billion a year. Curaleaf, the most exposed name here, sells there.

Idaho votes on a measure that would bar citizens from putting marijuana questions on the ballot.

Florida, Trulieve’s home market, won’t vote on adult use: the campaign failed to make the ballot.

What Could Go Wrong?

Massachusetts says yes. A rollback in a mature market would be the first, and a template for others.

The DEA stalls. The process has no deadline. Delay has been the norm since 2023.

Cash. Stocks under $1 face listing rules and dilution, whoever controls Congress.

Low exposure to Congress. High exposure to the DEA and to Massachusetts. Rescheduling is an executive decision, SAFE Banking has always died in the Senate, and Tuesday’s biggest cannabis vote is a state rollback. Watch the ballot question on Tuesday and the DEA after.

For the big picture, see Will The Midterms Move Your Stocks? Related: 3 Stocks That Could Pop If Democrats Win.

What Does Tuesday Mean For Your Money?

Elections change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, see what Tuesday means for your portfolio in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.

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