What Did Target Say Before Its Stock Took Off?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Investors who bought Target (TGT) shares on November 5, 2025 saw a 79.3% return by November 6, 2026, outpacing the 9.8% return for the S&P 500. During those months, Target’s sales shifted from shrinking to growing, and more shoppers visited. Management’s words were an early sign only if shoppers were visiting more, and the sales decline was narrowing, before that window opened. So what was management telling investors on its calls before November 2025?
In November 2024, Target Reported More Shopper Visits
Almost a year before the window opened, on its November 20, 2024 call, management reported a 2.4% increase in traffic, or shopper visits. Sales were still growing at the time, with revenue in the quarter ended November 2, 2024 rising 1.1% from a year earlier.
That sign did not build. On March 4, 2025, management said economic uncertainty had consumers spending cautiously. On May 21, 2025, it described an exceptionally challenging environment. By spring 2025, the November traffic figure looked more like a high point than a start.
Target’s Sales Fell Less In Summer 2025
The firmer sign emerged just before the window. Revenue fell 2.8% from a year earlier in the quarter ended May 3, 2025, and then dropped only 0.9% in the quarter ended August 2, 2025. On its August 20, 2025 call, management framed this turn in its own terms, noting that comparable sales “were down 1.9%, a nearly 2 percentage point improvement.”
Profit did not follow. Operating margin fell to 5.2% in the quarter ended August 2, 2025, dropping from 6.4% a year earlier. The shares slipped 1.6% in the six months to November 5, 2025. One better quarter is a hint, not yet a trend.
Sales Grew Again At Target
Target’s sales turn came only after two more quarters of decline. Revenue still fell 1.6% in the quarter ended November 1, 2025, a steeper decline than the summer’s 0.9%. It fell 1.5% in the quarter ended January 31, 2026, before rising 6.7% in the quarter ended May 2, 2026. The shares’ largest one-day gain of the window, 6.7% on March 3, 2026, came as Target issued a 2026 outlook for about 2% sales growth.
Net sales reached $26.5 billion in the quarter ended August 1, 2026, up 5.3% from a year earlier. Comparable sales rose 3.8%. Management said the increase came from a 3.6% rise in traffic, with the average basket remaining about flat. The August 2025 call had hinted at that sales turn, though the decline deepened again before it came, while the November 2024 traffic rise had not built. Walmart, the best of the three peers measured, returned 24.7% over the same window, so Target’s rise went well beyond its group. Amazon returned 3.6% and Costco 13.3%.
The profit jump is a different matter. Operating margin rose to 9.6% from 5.2% a year earlier, but management said tariff refunds supplied 3.7 points of that increase. Without the refunds, the margin was about 0.7 points higher. The signs before the window pointed to the sales recovery, not to most of the profit gain.
Is Target Still Drawing More Shoppers Now?
Yes, as of the latest call. On August 19, 2026, management said traffic growth was a slight acceleration on a two-year basis from the quarter before. Over the past three months, the shares returned 5.0%, while the S&P 500 lost 4.6%. The stock’s $158.41 close on November 6, 2026 was still below the $169.89 close of August 24, 2026.
Both early signs now hold: shoppers are visiting more, and sales are growing rather than shrinking. Sales growth still has gaps. Management said home and apparel, two high-margin categories, are not where they need to be. Target’s traffic growth, which stood at 3.6% in the quarter ended August 1, 2026, is the figure to watch when Target reports in November 2026.
Now You Know Target. Here Is A Better Way To Invest
Before you decide on TGT, consider owning 30 quality companies instead of one. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105% since its September 2020 launch, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.