TransDigm Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
TransDigm (NYSE:TDG) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. The company has a market value of about $68.7 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $10.0 billion in revenue and $4.7 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.1 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how TransDigm stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has TransDigm Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative 1D returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 55% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 42%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 11 positive 1D returns is 3.1%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -3.3%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 9.8% and -11.9%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/2026 | -0.8% | -4.8% | -10.1% |
| 5/5/2026 | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% |
| 2/3/2026 | -9.3% | -9.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | 1.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -11.9% | -12.4% | -15.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.5% | -3.8% | -1.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | -3.3% | -1.3% | 1.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -3.8% | -1.4% | -7.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.7% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.7% | -1.6% | 4.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.6% | 0.01% | 1.6% |
| 11/9/2023 | 8.7% | 11.1% | 14.0% |
| 8/8/2023 | -2.8% | -5.4% | -3.4% |
| 5/9/2023 | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| 2/7/2023 | 3.1% | 2.8% | 6.1% |
| 11/10/2022 | 9.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 8/9/2022 | 0.4% | 5.6% | -1.4% |
| 5/10/2022 | 3.8% | 0.1% | 13.0% |
| 2/8/2022 | 2.0% | -0.4% | 0.1% |
| 11/16/2021 | -1.0% | -3.7% | -10.9% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -3.7% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 11.1% | 14.0% |
| Max Negative | -11.9% | -12.4% | -15.1% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. Over five years, all three correlations are below 0.40 in absolute terms, so the early move has not reliably predicted what followed. The three-year 1D vs next 21D reading of 0.43 is stronger and hints that first moves have tended to carry on.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.13 | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| 3 Years | 0.07 | 0.43 | 0.34 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
RTX and Parker Hannifin (PH) usually report about 5 to 14 days before TransDigm, and have already reported this season. This time RTX rose 0.6% on its October 20 report, while Parker Hannifin fell 2.0% on its November 5 report. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with TransDigm’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are RTX (0.20), PH (-0.12); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed TransDigm’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| TDG Earnings Date | TDG 1D | RTX 1D | PH 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/2026 | -0.8% | 7.3% | n/a |
| 5/5/2026 | 3.6% | -4.4% | -4.0% |
| 2/3/2026 | -9.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| 11/12/2025 | 1.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -11.9% | -1.6% | n/a |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.5% | -9.8% | 0.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -3.3% | 2.6% | 5.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | -3.8% | -0.3% | 1.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.3% | 8.2% | n/a |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.7% | -0.2% | -2.3% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% |
| 11/9/2023 | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% |
| 8/8/2023 | -2.8% | -10.2% | 3.0% |
| 5/9/2023 | 4.7% | -1.3% | -0.3% |
| 2/7/2023 | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| 11/10/2022 | 9.8% | -1.5% | 0.9% |
| 8/9/2022 | 0.4% | -4.6% | 1.2% |
| 5/10/2022 | 3.8% | -0.4% | -5.0% |
| 2/8/2022 | 2.0% | 2.5% | -2.5% |
| Correlation | – | 0.20 | -0.12 |
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