Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Crypto: Market Update 12/24/2025
Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.
- Equity rose 0.4% yesterday and increased over both the past week and month.
- Bonds climbed 0.2% yesterday, after dropping 0.05% last week and 0.3% last month.
- Gold decreased 0.4% in the last session, with gains of 3.2% weekly and 8.3% monthly.
- Commodities declined 0.04% yesterday, continuing their downward trend for the week and month.
- Real Estate gained 0.7% yesterday, following weekly and monthly losses of 0.7% and 0.3% respectively.
- Bitcoin dropped 0.08% yesterday, versus a 1.4% rise last week and a 1% fall last month.
| ETF | 1D | 1W | 1M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 0.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| Bonds | AGG | 0.2% | -0.0% | -0.3% |
| Gold | GLD | -0.4% | 3.2% | 8.3% |
| Commodities | DBC | -0.0% | -1.0% | -0.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 0.7% | -0.7% | -0.3% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -0.1% | 1.4% | -1.0% |
Why does it matter?
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- See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
- Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
- Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.
Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile
| ETF | Return | Volatility | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 14.7% | 15.1% | 79.7% |
| Bonds | AGG | 2.0% | 5.1% | -10.4% |
| Gold | GLD | 14.9% | 14.3% | 84.8% |
| Commodities | DBC | 6.8% | 15.7% | 33.1% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 5.2% | 17.6% | 23.0% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 69.2% | 76.0% | 100.0% |
Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years
How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?
| Equity | Bonds | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | – | 11% | 19% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 12% | 2.7% | 35% | 24% | 35% | 73% | 69% | 63% | 25% | 38% | 40% |
| Bonds | 11% | 19% | 9.0% | – | 34% | 34% | 10% | -0.4% | -3.1% | -15% | 28% | 38% | 36% | 11% | 7.2% | -3.5% |
| Gold | 5.1% | 12% | 2.7% | 34% | 34% | 10% | – | 26% | 33% | 30% | 13% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Commodities | 35% | 24% | 35% | -0.4% | -3.1% | -15% | 26% | 33% | 30% | – | 24% | 16% | 20% | 10% | 12% | 21% |
| Real Estate | 73% | 69% | 63% | 28% | 38% | 36% | 13% | 19% | 10% | 24% | 16% | 20% | – | 17% | 25% | 19% |
| Bitcoin | 25% | 38% | 40% | 11% | 7.2% | -3.5% | 11% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10% | 12% | 21% | 17% | 25% | 19% | – |
The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order
Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?
| ETF | Inflation Shock | Covid Pandemic | 2018 Correction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -23.0% | -30.4% | -19.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | -14.1% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| Gold | GLD | -7.7% | -6.3% | 5.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | 20.5% | -23.7% | -16.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -29.8% | -41.6% | -11.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -56.0% | -33.5% | -37.4% |
The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.