Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Crypto: Market Update 11/4/2025
Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.
- Equity fell 1.2% yesterday, versus a weekly decline of 1.7% and a 0.5% monthly rise.
- Bonds rose 0.05% yesterday, after dropping 1.1% weekly and gaining 0.2% monthly.
- Gold dropped 1.8% yesterday, continuing losses for the week and month.
- Commodities fell 0.7% yesterday, but are up 1.3% for the week and 1.1% for the month.
- Real Estate gained 0.2% yesterday, following weekly and monthly declines of 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively.
- Gold fell 1.2% yesterday and recorded losses over both weekly and monthly periods.
| ETF | 1D | 1W | 1M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -1.2% | -1.7% | 0.5% |
| Bonds | AGG | 0.0% | -1.1% | 0.2% |
| Gold | GLD | -1.8% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| Commodities | DBC | -0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 0.2% | -1.8% | -1.5% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -1.2% | -6.8% | -15.6% |
Why does it matter?
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- See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
- Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
- Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.
Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile
| ETF | Return | Volatility | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 14.5% | 15.0% | 79.6% |
| Bonds | AGG | 1.7% | 5.1% | -15.7% |
| Gold | GLD | 12.5% | 14.4% | 68.4% |
| Commodities | DBC | 5.3% | 16.0% | 24.6% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 5.1% | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 80.1% | 75.4% | 110.6% |
Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years
How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?
| Equity | Bonds | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | – | 11% | 19% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 12% | 0.9% | 35% | 24% | 32% | 73% | 69% | 62% | 25% | 37% | 40% |
| Bonds | 11% | 19% | 9.6% | – | 35% | 34% | 15% | -0.2% | -2.8% | -8.7% | 28% | 37% | 42% | 10% | 7.4% | -5.8% |
| Gold | 4.9% | 12% | 0.9% | 35% | 34% | 15% | – | 26% | 33% | 36% | 13% | 18% | 15% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 2.1% |
| Commodities | 35% | 24% | 32% | -0.2% | -2.8% | -8.7% | 26% | 33% | 36% | – | 23% | 16% | 19% | 9.9% | 12% | 15% |
| Real Estate | 73% | 69% | 62% | 28% | 37% | 42% | 13% | 18% | 15% | 23% | 16% | 19% | – | 17% | 25% | 18% |
| Bitcoin | 25% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 7.4% | -5.8% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 9.9% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 25% | 18% | – |
The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order
Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?
| ETF | Inflation Shock | Covid Pandemic | 2018 Correction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -23.0% | -30.4% | -19.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | -14.1% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| Gold | GLD | -7.7% | -6.3% | 5.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | 20.5% | -23.7% | -16.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -29.8% | -41.6% | -11.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -56.0% | -33.5% | -37.4% |
The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.