SpaceX Stock: The Slide Isn’t Over

SpaceX (SPCX) 30% drop over the last three trading days looks dramatic.

It isn’t nearly enough.

Even after the selloff, SpaceX trades at roughly 100x trailing revenue and close to 200x trailing EBITDA despite revenue growth in the low-30% range. With insider lockups set to expire, competing trillion-dollar AI IPOs approaching, and interest-rate expectations moving higher, the stock still appears priced for perfection. SpaceX At 100x Revenue: A Warning From 2000

The Lockup Clock Is Ticking. 

When a company goes public, insiders and employees are typically barred from selling their shares for a set period after the IPO. At SpaceX, those restrictions begin unwinding fast. A 20% insider share unlock triggers after earnings in early to mid-August, with additional 7% unlocks scheduled around August 21 and September 10. A separate 10% unlock kicks in automatically if the stock trades 30% above its IPO price. SpaceX’s workforce is enormous and heavily compensated in equity, and even a modest percentage choosing to sell creates a supply overhang the market has not priced in. Past mega-IPOs from Facebook to Uber experienced meaningful secondary declines at lockup expiry, and none of them came with an unlock schedule this aggressive. Insiders could flood the market with up to 44% of shares by early September, increasing the current float by roughly 900%. SpaceX Stock’s Lockup: You’ve Been Warned

OpenAI And Anthropic IPOs

The most consequential competing IPOs due in the next couple of months are not generic tech listings. OpenAI and Anthropic have already confidentially filed for IPOs, with Anthropic filing in early June and OpenAI following days later, setting the stage for highly anticipated late-2026 debuts. Both are expected to price at valuations exceeding a trillion dollars and carry long-horizon narratives about reshaping the global economy. Institutional investors have finite capital and a finite appetite for speculative risk. Together, OpenAI and Anthropic could seek hundreds of billions of dollars in investor capital, creating a powerful competing destination for growth-oriented funds. This could impact SpaceX directly.

Rates and the new Fed chair are serious wildcards.

With inflation re-accelerating and a new Fed chair taking office, higher-for-longer rates are back on the table. While Kevin Warsh held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at his first meeting, the committee’s tone shifted sharply. Nine of his colleagues signaled support for higher rates this year, six of them backing two quarter-point increases. As recently as March, not a single policymaker had penciled in a hike. The inflation driving that reversal is real: CPI hit 4.2% in May, the highest reading in three years, fueled largely by the oil price spike from the Iran conflict. SpaceX is the definition of a long-duration asset – most of the Starship and SpaceX AI cash flows sit a decade or more away. Every 25 basis points added to the risk-free rate effectively compresses what terminal value is worth today.

Fundamentals Don’t Back Up Valuation 

The valuation gap remains difficult to justify. Our discounted cash flow model points to a fair value of roughly $79 per share, implying a valuation of roughly $1 trillion. Several key assumptions embedded in the current price look optimistic. Starlink’s ARPU is declining as subscriber growth shifts toward lower-income international markets. The launch business remains dependent on Falcon 9 profits being recycled into Starship development, while Starship itself has yet to demonstrate reliable commercial operations at scale. Meanwhile, underwriters have promoted SpaceXAI as a major future growth engine, but the business remains highly speculative, burning nearly $8 billion per quarter with limited distribution. At today’s valuation, investors are paying for years of flawless execution before that execution has actually occurred. See how SpaceX’s financials compare with other publicly listed Space stocks such as Redwire (RDW) and Rocket Lab (RKLB)

SpaceX is asking investors to back an AI infrastructure thesis priced for perfection, at multiples that leave little room for the unexpected. Balancing speculative bets like this against proven cash-generating platforms becomes critical. A disciplined portfolio approach helps you stay invested by limiting the impact of market shocks. While consistently beating the market is a challenge, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is designed to make it an achievable goal. The HQ strategy has consistently outperformed its market benchmark since inception, delivering cumulative returns of over 105 percent.