How Will Synopsys Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. The company has $75 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.4 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Synopsys’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 27% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 6.1%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/9/2025 | -35.8% | -29.5% | -19.0% |
| 5/28/2025 | -1.6% | 2.3% | 8.7% |
| 2/26/2025 | -3.3% | -4.8% | -5.2% |
| 12/4/2024 | -12.4% | -12.9% | -14.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | -2.9% | -9.7% | -10.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | 2.3% | -1.5% | 3.9% |
| 2/21/2024 | 6.9% | 4.9% | 10.8% |
| 11/29/2023 | -1.7% | -4.5% | -6.8% |
| 8/16/2023 | -1.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% |
| 5/17/2023 | 8.7% | 4.9% | 17.0% |
| 2/15/2023 | -5.2% | -3.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/30/2022 | 5.4% | -4.6% | -6.0% |
| 8/17/2022 | -2.0% | -5.8% | -17.5% |
| 5/18/2022 | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% |
| 2/16/2022 | -4.4% | 0.3% | 3.7% |
| 12/1/2021 | 4.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% |
| 8/18/2021 | 8.7% | 11.8% | 12.0% |
| 5/19/2021 | 3.1% | 7.1% | 12.0% |
| 2/17/2021 | -4.5% | -8.1% | -19.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 4.9% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -5.3% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 11.8% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -35.8% | -29.5% | -19.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -25.6% | -35.9% | 18.7% |
| 3Y History | -45.1% | -51.1% | 24.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Synopsys stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Synopsys. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| SNPS Earnings Dates | SNPS | ADSK |
| 9/9/2025 | -35.8% | 12.7% |
| 5/28/2025 | -1.6% | 1.4% |
| 12/4/2024 | -12.4% | -4.3% |
| 11/29/2023 | -1.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/30/2022 | 5.4% | -3.3% |
| 12/1/2021 | 4.5% | -17.9% |
| CORRELATION | -73.5% |
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