How Will Snowflake Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. The company has $59 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.7 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-1.4 Bil in operating losses and net income of $-1.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Snowflake’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 7.8%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -12%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/25/2026 | 2.3% | -0.6% | -4.1% |
| 12/3/2025 | -11.4% | -18.3% | -11.5% |
| 8/27/2025 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| 5/21/2025 | 13.4% | 12.9% | 19.3% |
| 2/26/2025 | 4.5% | 6.7% | -5.5% |
| 11/20/2024 | 32.7% | 34.5% | 28.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | -14.7% | -17.4% | -18.4% |
| 5/22/2024 | -5.4% | -13.7% | -23.6% |
| 2/28/2024 | -18.1% | -27.4% | -29.7% |
| 11/29/2023 | 7.0% | 5.2% | 13.5% |
| 8/23/2023 | -5.2% | -0.2% | -3.9% |
| 5/24/2023 | -16.5% | -5.6% | -4.1% |
| 3/1/2023 | -12.4% | -7.7% | -8.0% |
| 11/30/2022 | 7.8% | -3.8% | 0.4% |
| 8/24/2022 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 7.9% |
| 5/25/2022 | -4.5% | 4.1% | 11.6% |
| 3/2/2022 | -15.4% | -21.6% | -13.4% |
| 12/1/2021 | 15.8% | 19.1% | 8.9% |
| 8/25/2021 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 11.5% |
| 5/26/2021 | 4.2% | 1.4% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.6% |
| Median Negative | -12.4% | -10.7% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 32.7% | 34.5% | 28.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -27.4% | -29.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -8.5% | -33.2% | -25.5% |
| 3Y History | -5.1% | -8.8% | -11.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Snowflake stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Snowflake. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNOW Earnings Dates | SNOW | MSFT | AMZN | GOOGL | PLTR |
| 2/25/2026 | 2.3% | -16.6% | -5.4% | -6.0% | -9.2% |
| 8/27/2025 | 20.3% | -1.1% | -2.1% | N/A* | -2.5% |
| 5/21/2025 | 13.4% | 14.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | -2.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | 4.5% | -9.4% | -10.2% | -16.3% | 6.7% |
| 11/20/2024 | 32.7% | -3.9% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 50.0% |
| 8/21/2024 | -14.7% | 0.5% | -2.2% | -8.8% | 35.1% |
| 5/22/2024 | -5.4% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 13.1% | -16.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | -18.1% | -0.0% | 8.7% | -10.0% | 46.1% |
| 11/29/2023 | 7.0% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | 10.4% |
| 8/23/2023 | -5.2% | -6.6% | 5.1% | 8.3% | -15.0% |
| 5/24/2023 | -16.5% | 14.2% | 6.3% | N/A* | 58.0% |
| 3/1/2023 | -12.4% | N/A* | -18.4% | -16.1% | 1.1% |
| 11/30/2022 | 7.8% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | 6.8% |
| 8/24/2022 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | -17.5% |
| 5/25/2022 | -4.5% | -2.6% | -26.2% | -10.8% | 6.7% |
| 3/2/2022 | -15.4% | N/A* | 9.5% | -2.2% | 2.5% |
| 12/1/2021 | 15.8% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | -20.1% |
| 8/25/2021 | 7.6% | 5.6% | -8.4% | 7.7% | -2.2% |
| CORRELATION | 6.8% | 4.2% | 25.8% | -12.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after SNOW
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