How Will Snowflake Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 3, 2025. The company has $84 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.1 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-1.5 Bil in operating losses and net income of $-1.4 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding SNOW stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
Snowflake’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 7.8%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -14%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| 5/21/2025 | 13.4% | 12.9% | 19.3% |
| 2/26/2025 | 4.5% | 6.7% | -5.5% |
| 11/20/2024 | 32.7% | 34.5% | 28.8% |
| 8/21/2024 | -14.7% | -17.4% | -18.4% |
| 5/22/2024 | -5.4% | -13.7% | -23.6% |
| 2/28/2024 | -18.1% | -27.4% | -29.7% |
| 11/29/2023 | 7.0% | 5.2% | 13.5% |
| 8/23/2023 | -5.2% | -0.2% | -3.9% |
| 5/24/2023 | -16.5% | -5.6% | -4.1% |
| 3/1/2023 | -12.4% | -7.7% | -8.0% |
| 11/30/2022 | 7.8% | -3.8% | 0.4% |
| 8/24/2022 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 7.9% |
| 5/25/2022 | -4.5% | 4.1% | 11.6% |
| 3/2/2022 | -15.4% | -21.6% | -13.4% |
| 12/1/2021 | 15.8% | 19.1% | 8.9% |
| 8/25/2021 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 11.5% |
| 5/26/2021 | 4.2% | 1.4% | 5.0% |
| 3/3/2021 | 0.8% | -8.1% | -4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.6% |
| Median Negative | -13.6% | -8.1% | -8.0% |
| Max Positive | 32.7% | 34.5% | 28.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -27.4% | -29.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -11.3% | -33.6% | -25.5% |
| 3Y History | -11.4% | -16.9% | -10.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Snowflake stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Snowflake. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| SNOW Earnings Dates | SNOW | DDOG | TDC |
| 8/27/2025 | 20.3% | -3.4% | 4.3% |
| 5/21/2025 | 13.4% | 7.2% | -0.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | 4.5% | -16.6% | -22.4% |
| 11/20/2024 | 32.7% | 4.4% | N/A* |
| 8/21/2024 | -14.7% | 3.2% | -3.7% |
| 5/22/2024 | -5.4% | 9.2% | -13.1% |
| 2/28/2024 | -18.1% | -0.9% | -24.4% |
| 11/29/2023 | 7.0% | 14.1% | 5.2% |
| 8/23/2023 | -5.2% | 8.4% | -19.5% |
| 5/24/2023 | -16.5% | 23.9% | 8.7% |
| 3/1/2023 | -12.4% | -8.8% | 3.3% |
| 11/30/2022 | 7.8% | 1.0% | 13.7% |
| 8/24/2022 | 23.1% | -4.7% | -12.3% |
| 5/25/2022 | -4.5% | -20.7% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2022 | -15.4% | -5.8% | 21.7% |
| 12/1/2021 | 15.8% | -1.4% | -25.0% |
| 8/25/2021 | 7.6% | 2.4% | 6.5% |
| 5/26/2021 | 4.2% | 28.1% | N/A* |
| 3/3/2021 | 0.8% | -23.5% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 1.7% | -4.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after SNOW
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