SanDisk’s Forecast And Its Chart Now Say The Same Thing. Pay Attention.
SanDisk (SNDK) issued its fiscal first-quarter forecast on August 5, 2026. The stock fell at first, but as of October 6, 2026, it sits 16.3% above its close before that release. Over the same period, the S&P 500 added 1.2%. Here is what SanDisk guided, what the chart shows, and what could push the stock higher.
What SanDisk Guided For Fiscal Q1 2027
SanDisk expects revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion for the pending first quarter of fiscal 2027. The company reported $8.97 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, meaning management is guiding to a clear step up from one quarter to the next. This represents a forecast for a new period rather than a revision to an earlier estimate. Management credited the growth it expects in the first quarter to selling more storage and to modest price increases.
The earnings forecast follows a similar path. Management guided to adjusted earnings of $44 to $46 a share for the first quarter. By comparison, the company reported $39.25 for the fourth quarter.
Gross margin does not reflect the same upward trajectory. Management guided to an adjusted gross margin of 83% to 85% for the first quarter, compared to the adjusted 84.6% it reported for the fourth quarter. When asked about this outlook during the August 5 call, executives pointed to product mix and cautious assumptions regarding component costs.
Is SanDisk’s Uptrend Still Intact?
The technical trend remains positive. SanDisk stock closed at $1,660.46 on October 6, 2026, sitting above the two moving averages closely tracked by chart readers. The 50-day average, which measures the closing price over roughly the last ten weeks of trading, stood at $1,552.66. The 200-day average, capturing the same measure over a much longer stretch, reached $1,160.60. Because the current share price exceeds the shorter average, and the shorter average exceeds the longer one, the moving averages still point to an uptrend.
Market participants initially had a different response. Over the two sessions after the release, investors digested both the quarter’s results and the forward guidance. During that brief window, SanDisk stock fell 11.8% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%. The stock has since reversed course, climbing 31.9% against a 1.4% gain for the index. Despite this recovery, the shares remain 28.9% below their high of the past year.
Where Further Gains In SanDisk Stock Could Come From
To extend the recovery, SanDisk must first deliver the quarter it guided to. The company recently beat its last guide, as revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 came in above a guided range of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion.
The data center business could push the stock higher. Through this segment, SanDisk sells high-capacity enterprise SSDs, the storage hardware used in AI systems. Datacenter revenue reached $2.98 billion in the fourth quarter, up 103% from the quarter before. The company also signed multi-year supply agreements with 8 customers across its Datacenter and Edge markets. Management says SanDisk can expect a minimum of $93.9 billion in revenue from those agreements, which run up to 5 years, calculated at the lowest prices the contracts allow. Furthermore, executives noted that customer demand is growing faster than available supply.
If first quarter revenue exceeds the top of the guided range, it would indicate that demand remains ahead of what management planned for. Datacenter sales growing faster than the rest of SanDisk would reinforce that same point. On the downside, a close below the 50-day average would offer the first sign that the upward trend in SanDisk stock has broken.
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