Can Semtech Stock Hit $190?
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Semtech’s (SMTC) data center chips are the key to whether its stock can get back to $190. This segment grew fastest during the shares’ 87.8% run over the twelve months to November 3, 2026. The stock traded above that price only a month ago, closing at $197.2 on October 6, 2026, its highest close in three years, before closing at $127.42 on November 3. So when did Semtech’s data center business first show up, and how clear was it?
Semtech’s Early Data Center Remarks Came With A Warning
Semtech’s data center business surfaced as a problem in the months before the run. During the fiscal Q1 2026 call on May 27, 2025, management said it still expected a short-term gap in demand for CopperEdge, one of its data center product lines. By the August 25, 2025 call, management described making up for a lull in CopperEdge sales following the first rack deployment at its anchor customer.
Management also shared good news on that August call. It said Semtech (SMTC) had secured several design wins in 400-gig products and expected to launch its ACC products with U.S. hyperscaler customers during calendar 2026. On September 29, 2025, the company said it was sampling parts for 1.6T optical networks in AI data centers, including a FiberEdge laser.
None of this had appeared in the filed results yet. Semtech’s revenue growth slowed from 30.1% in fiscal Q4 2025 to 19.6% in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended July 27, 2025. The stock had also already returned 98.8% in the six months before October 31, 2025, so anyone buying when the run began was buying after a large rise. The early evidence came from what management said, rather than the sales it reported.
Data Center Sales Nearly Doubled In A Year
By fiscal Q2 2027, the quarter ended July 26, 2026, Semtech’s data center revenue was a record $100 million. That figure climbed 91% from a year earlier and made up about 29% of the company’s $342 million in revenue for the quarter. Management said the growth came from 800-gig products, 1.6T CopperEdge and the start of the 1.6T FiberEdge ramp. CopperEdge and FiberEdge had both come up before the run.
Semtech’s run beat the S&P 500, which returned 11.9% over the same twelve months. The rise was not Semtech’s alone, however: Analog Devices, one of its peers, returned 81.5% over the same dates.
Is Semtech’s Data Center Growth Still Building?
Management expects data center sales to keep growing. Citing a record backlog, it forecast data center sales for fiscal Q3 2027 to rise 45% from the quarter before, landing about 160% above a year earlier. Management also said volume deployment of ACC with leading hyperscalers would start in the fourth quarter, the launch it had flagged in August 2025.
Those are forecasts rather than results, and the stock has moved the other way. Semtech shares fell 33.9% from October 5 to November 3, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell 2.6%.
When the company reports in December 2026, the number to watch will be Semtech’s data center revenue for fiscal Q3 2027, measured against management’s forecast of about 160% growth from a year earlier.
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