Can NuScale Power Stock Fall 40%?

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NuScale Power (SMR) shares have declined 26.9% since September 29, 2026, compared to a 1.0% gain for the S&P 500, while peer Oklo fell by the same amount. A further 40% fall in a market sell-off would not be new for NuScale. In three of the five market shocks it has traded through, its shares lost 40% or more. So how far below the market did NuScale go in those shocks, and how long did it stay down?

How Far Has NuScale Stock Fallen In Market Shocks?

NuScale’s deepest fall in a market shock occurred during the Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock, when the stock shed 72% while the S&P 500 lost 9.5%. The stock dropped an average of 40.2% across all five shocks, falling roughly three times as far as the index’s 13.4% average decline. The 2022 inflation and Fed tightening shock proved the exception when measured from the event’s first day, with NuScale losing 11% compared to the S&P 500’s 24% decline. When measured from its high to its low in that shock, however, NuScale fell 30.2%, exceeding the index’s 24.5% drop.

NuScale took a median of 4.2 months to climb from its low back to its earlier high, successfully regaining that high after all five shocks. The 2022 shock was the slow one. The shares needed 21 months to rise from their October 2022 low back to their August 2022 high.

NuScale’s Sales Dropped While Its Losses Grew

NuScale earned almost nothing from customers in the June 2026 quarter, when revenue fell 99.1% from a year earlier to $75,000. Management said the drop reflects the late 2025 completion of the Fluor front-end engineering design Phase 2 work for the RoPower project.

NuScale’s operating loss widened to $64.0 million in the June quarter from $43.1 million a year earlier. Over the twelve months to June 2026, its free cash flow was negative $779 million, compared to negative $95.3 million the year before.

NuScale covers this cash outflow with its reserves. At June 30, 2026, the company held $1.07 billion in cash and short-term investments, and its total debt was less than $1 million. On its August 5 earnings call, management put its cash, cash equivalents and investments at about $1.9 billion. Management said the higher figure includes longer-term investments, which it called all cash and cash-like.

What Risks Is NuScale Facing Now?

The contracts that would bring NuScale revenue were not signed at its August 5, 2026 earnings call. Management said on that call that the RoPower project would bring revenue in 2027 if it gets a contract in place. Partner ENTRA1 Energy was still in talks with the Tennessee Valley Authority toward a definitive power purchase agreement, and management said those talks were progressing. For the RoPower project, management said it was waiting for a green light from the new government in Bucharest to finalize contract agreements, with the final notice to proceed probably another year away.

On August 18, 2026, news reports said NuScale was selling $750 million of new shares, and the stock fell 6% that day.

NuScale is expected to report its next quarterly results in November 2026, and its quarterly revenue is the measure to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On SMR?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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