How Much Money Could You Make If You Bought Shopify Stock Today?
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Shopify (SHOP) stock fell 13.4% in the past month, against a 5.7% fall for the S&P 500. The shares are back at a price they bounced from in August 2025 and September 2026. Buying here is a bet that merchants keep selling about 30% more through Shopify each year, and that Shopify’s operating margin keeps rising while the company spends more on the holiday quarter. If Shopify bounces again, what would $10,000 of its stock be worth?
What Would $10,000 In Shopify Be Worth At Resistance?
If Shopify stock rose to resistance, the price where its past rallies stalled, a $10,000 stake bought today would be worth $12,460. The typical past bounce from this price went a little further and would have turned $10,000 into $12,570. On the way up, the shares would pass two lower levels where rallies also stalled, positioned 8.5% and 17.3% above today’s price.
| Level | Price | From today |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance: rallies stalled here 2 times | $179.12 | 24.6% higher |
| Today | $143.75 | Reference price |
| Support is broken below | $136.56 | 5.0% lower |
| Next support below | $126.60 | 11.9% lower |
Shopify’s most recent bounces from this price went further than the typical one. From late August 2025, the stock rose as much as 31.0% over the next ten weeks. Starting on September 21, 2026, it gained 29.9% in three weeks to reach its highest close of the past year. The shares have dropped back into this price band six times since November 1, 2024. On five of those visits, they fell 5% before they rose 20%. Each fall is measured from that visit’s own close, not from today’s price.
Are Shopify’s Merchants Still Selling More?
They are. Merchants sold $119 billion of goods through Shopify in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, 29.5% more than a year earlier. Shopify’s revenue grew 31.6% to $3.74 billion. Merchant Solutions revenue grew 35%, which management tied to those sales and to more of them running through Shopify’s payments.
Management expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow in the low 30s percent. Investors paid 13.5 times sales at the end of September, less than at most quarter ends since late 2016.
Is Shopify Earning More As It Spends More?
So far, yes. Shopify’s operating margin was 18.4% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, up from 17.3% in the same quarter a year earlier. Over the past twelve months, the margin was 18.1%, its highest at any quarter end since late 2016.
Shopify plans to spend more in the fourth quarter. Management expects operating expenses to account for 29% to 30% of revenue, reflecting higher marketing ahead of the holiday shopping season.
What If Shopify Stock Breaks Below This Price?
Support counts as broken once the shares close 5% below today’s price, and that happened early in 2026. Following a January 20 visit, the stock fell 5% within a week and closed as low as $95.40 by May 13. If support breaks again, the next support below is 11.9% under today’s price.
The worry in the business is gross margin. Shopify’s gross margin was 47.5% over the past twelve months, down from 48.7% a year earlier, which was itself down from 50.9%. Management expects fourth-quarter gross profit to grow in the high 20s percent, slower than revenue. Management named extra AI spending on Sidekick as the main reason Subscription Solutions gross margins fell from a year earlier. Taken with the spending guide, that outlook points to a fourth-quarter operating margin below the 20.3% Shopify reported a year earlier.
The Shopify Number To Watch Next
Merchant sales are still growing fast, and Shopify’s operating margin rose again in the third quarter. Profit is the less settled side, because Shopify is spending more on the holiday quarter while keeping a smaller share of its revenue as gross profit. When the company reports in February 2027, the number to watch is fourth-quarter operating expenses as a share of revenue.
Now You Know Shopify. Here Is A Better Way To Invest
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