How Will SailPoint Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
SailPoint (NASDAQ:SAIL) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, September 9, 2026. The company has $11 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $1.1 billion, and it was operationally loss-making with $202 million in operating losses and a net loss of $157 million. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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SailPoint’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 6 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 1 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 17% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 17% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 1 positive returns = 15%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -7.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 6/9/2026 | -11.5% | -19.7% | -16.1% |
| 3/18/2026 | -15.2% | -16.2% | -20.5% |
| 12/9/2025 | -1.9% | 1.9% | -3.6% |
| 9/9/2025 | -7.7% | -3.1% | -1.7% |
| 6/11/2025 | 14.7% | 16.8% | 5.0% |
| 3/26/2025 | -1.2% | -16.1% | -22.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # Negative | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 14.7% | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -16.2% | -16.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 16.8% | 5.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.2% | -19.7% | -22.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 5D_21D shows the strongest correlation here, and it is negative: if the 5D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the opposite direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 21.5% | -17.0% | -59.7% |
| 3Y History | 21.5% | -17.0% | -59.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of SailPoint stock compared with the stock performance of OKTA, a peer that reported earnings just before SailPoint. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| SAIL Earnings Dates | SAIL | OKTA |
| 6/9/2026 | -11.5% | 30.1% |
| 3/18/2026 | -15.2% | 11.0% |
| 12/9/2025 | -1.9% | 5.5% |
| 9/9/2025 | -7.7% | 1.6% |
| 6/11/2025 | 14.7% | -16.2% |
| CORRELATION | -81.1% |
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