How Will Ralph Lauren Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 21, 2026. The company has $20 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.3 Bil in operating profits and net income of $919 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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Ralph Lauren’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 4.4%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -4.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | -4.5% | 1.4% | -4.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.6% | 7.4% | 12.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.5% | -0.3% | 3.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | 1.3% | 1.4% | -1.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 9.6% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 6.6% | 1.3% | 10.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.4% | -1.5% | 5.1% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.3% | 12.9% | 12.0% |
| 2/8/2024 | 16.8% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.2% | 6.7% | 16.2% |
| 8/10/2023 | -4.8% | -8.4% | -9.0% |
| 5/25/2023 | 5.3% | -2.0% | 9.7% |
| 2/9/2023 | 0.5% | 5.6% | -3.2% |
| 11/10/2022 | 5.8% | 10.9% | 19.1% |
| 8/9/2022 | -4.3% | -2.7% | -8.6% |
| 5/24/2022 | 0.2% | 11.1% | 2.6% |
| 2/3/2022 | 3.5% | 11.9% | 2.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | -9.7% | -0.6% | -10.3% |
| 8/3/2021 | 6.1% | 2.3% | -1.6% |
| 5/20/2021 | -7.0% | -5.3% | -13.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 7.4% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -2.0% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -8.4% | -13.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -12.0% | -6.9% | -19.8% |
| 3Y History | 10.4% | -26.1% | -19.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ralph Lauren stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ralph Lauren. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| RL Earnings Dates | RL | TPR |
| 5/22/2025 | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.4% | -7.3% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| 5/25/2023 | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| 8/9/2022 | -4.3% | -1.7% |
| 5/24/2022 | 0.2% | -1.9% |
| CORRELATION | 49.5% |
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