Rocket Lab Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, November 9, 2026. The company has a market value of about $29.0 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $769 million in revenue and posted an operating loss of $223 million, with a net loss of $165 million.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Analysts expect quarterly revenue of about $261 million and a loss of about $0.07 per share. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Rocket Lab Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 47% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 42%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 9 positive 1D returns is 12.0%, and the median of the 10 negative ones is -2.4%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 34.2% and -11.2%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/10/2026 | -0.04% | 2.5% | -21.2% |
| 5/7/2026 | 34.2% | 68.7% | 44.6% |
| 2/26/2026 | -4.9% | -3.6% | -16.1% |
| 11/10/2025 | -1.3% | -16.6% | 10.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.1% | -3.2% | 8.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.2% | 9.2% | 28.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | 3.3% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.4% | 39.8% | 54.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.6% | 22.2% | 28.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | -2.2% | 2.5% | 9.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | -2.5% | -10.0% | -12.1% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.8% | 0.9% | 10.1% |
| 8/8/2023 | -3.2% | -8.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | 4.6% | 8.6% | 34.0% |
| 2/28/2023 | -2.2% | -2.2% | -12.0% |
| 11/9/2022 | 12.0% | -1.2% | -15.6% |
| 8/11/2022 | 21.2% | 2.4% | -2.4% |
| 5/16/2022 | 4.6% | -15.3% | -20.0% |
| 2/28/2022 | -4.6% | -12.3% | -13.1% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 12.0% | 8.6% | 28.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -7.2% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 34.2% | 68.7% | 54.0% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -16.6% | -21.2% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| 3 Years | 0.28 | 0.17 | -0.18 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC) and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) usually report about 13 to 21 days before Rocket Lab, and have already reported this season. This time Lockheed Martin rose 7.0% on its October 22 report, Northrop Grumman rose 4.6% on its October 20 report, and L3Harris rose 6.8% on its October 29 report. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Rocket Lab’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are LMT (-0.18), NOC (0.11), LHX (0.26); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Rocket Lab’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| RKLB Earnings Date | RKLB 1D | LMT 1D | NOC 1D | LHX 1D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/10/2026 | -0.04% | 10.5% | -2.2% | -8.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | 34.2% | -4.6% | -7.0% | -0.3% |
| 2/26/2026 | -4.9% | 4.2% | n/a | n/a |
| 11/10/2025 | -1.3% | -3.2% | -0.4% | 3.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.1% | -10.8% | 9.4% | 1.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.2% | 0.8% | -12.7% | -0.02% |
| 2/27/2025 | 3.3% | n/a | 0.4% | n/a |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.4% | -6.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | -5.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | -2.2% | -0.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.8% | 0.2% | -1.1% | -2.4% |
| 8/8/2023 | -3.2% | -3.0% | -2.6% | -6.3% |
| 5/9/2023 | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | -1.4% |
| 11/9/2022 | 12.0% | 8.7% | 0.9% | -1.6% |
| 8/11/2022 | 21.2% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| 5/16/2022 | 4.6% | -1.6% | 1.2% | -2.9% |
| Correlation | – | -0.18 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
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