Rivian Automotive Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The company has a market value of about $15.7 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $5.9 billion in revenue and posted an operating loss of $3.5 billion, with a net loss of $3.2 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how Rivian Automotive stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Rivian Automotive Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 35% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 33%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 7 positive 1D returns is 17.4%, and the median of the 13 negative ones is -7.6%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 26.6% and -25.6%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | -9.6% | -8.6% | -4.5% |
| 4/30/2026 | -8.4% | -13.5% | 3.4% |
| 2/12/2026 | 26.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | 23.4% | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.2% | -1.5% | 12.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.7% | -14.8% | -14.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | 5.4% | 2.6% | 43.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -6.9% | -8.5% | -7.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.2% | 9.2% | 14.5% |
| 2/21/2024 | -25.6% | -26.6% | -27.4% |
| 11/7/2023 | -2.4% | -3.0% | 10.2% |
| 8/8/2023 | -9.9% | -16.2% | -5.6% |
| 5/9/2023 | 1.8% | -5.6% | 1.4% |
| 2/28/2023 | -18.3% | -24.1% | -26.2% |
| 11/9/2022 | 17.4% | 18.7% | -2.8% |
| 8/11/2022 | -0.1% | -7.8% | -0.5% |
| 5/11/2022 | 18.0% | 32.5% | 37.7% |
| 3/10/2022 | -7.6% | 2.4% | -5.7% |
| 12/16/2021 | -10.3% | -11.0% | -32.8% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 17.4% | 9.7% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -7.6% | -9.8% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 26.6% | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| Max Negative | -25.6% | -26.6% | -32.8% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.03 | 0.10 | -0.22 |
| 3 Years | -0.11 | 0.11 | -0.21 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) usually report about 14 to 15 days before Rivian Automotive, and have already reported this season. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Rivian Automotive’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are TSLA (0.23), GM (0.42); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Rivian Automotive’s.
| RIVN Earnings Date | RIVN 1D | TSLA 1D | GM 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | -9.6% | -14.5% | 4.9% |
| 4/30/2026 | -8.4% | -3.6% | 1.3% |
| 2/12/2026 | 26.6% | -3.5% | 8.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | 23.4% | 2.3% | 14.9% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.2% | -8.2% | -8.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.8% | 5.4% | -0.6% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.7% | 2.9% | -8.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | 5.4% | 21.9% | 9.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -6.9% | -12.3% | -6.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.2% | 12.1% | 4.4% |
| 2/21/2024 | -25.6% | n/a | 7.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | -2.4% | -9.3% | -2.3% |
| 8/8/2023 | -9.9% | -9.7% | -3.5% |
| 5/9/2023 | 1.8% | -9.7% | -4.0% |
| 11/9/2022 | 17.4% | -6.6% | 3.6% |
| 8/11/2022 | -0.1% | 9.8% | -3.4% |
| 5/11/2022 | 18.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Correlation | – | 0.23 | 0.42 |
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