Rigetti Computing’s Upside Potential Remains Intact

Rigetti Computing’s stock is up a solid 135% in a month, driven by a mix of factors that signal the company’s transition from pure R&D to nearing a commercial reality. The quantum computing sector has generally experienced a surge, with Rigetti outperforming peers. Here’s what’s been moving the needle:

• On September 30, Rigetti announced securing purchase orders for two Novera quantum computing systems valued at approximately $5.7 million.
• On September 18, Rigetti was awarded a $5.8 million, three-year contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory to advance superconducting quantum networking in partnership with QphoX. These orders signal a move towards commercialization.
• Signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) in September 2025 to explore co-development of hybrid quantum computing systems.
• In August 2025, Rigetti made its new 36-qubit system, Cepheus-1-36Q, with a 99.5% fidelity, available on its cloud platform.

But here’s the key question: Is there still meaningful upside left in RGTI stock after its massive rally, and if so, why? The short answer is, yes. We’ll delve into this in the sections below. That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Separately, see – What’s Next For CoreWeave Stock?

Image by Markus Winkler from Pixabay

The 10x Upside Case: Why the Thesis Remains Intact

We talked about a 10x upside potential for RGTI stock a couple of months back, and the stock has already rallied 2x since then. But here’s the thing—the fundamental drivers haven’t changed. In fact, they’ve strengthened. Let’s dig into why Rigetti might still have significant room to run.

The Modular Architecture Advantage

Unlike competitors using monolithic processors, Rigetti’s chiplet approach directly addresses quantum computing’s primary scaling challenge. Traditional quantum computers struggle to scale because increasing qubit count on a single chip exponentially increases complexity and error rates. Rigetti’s solution? Break it into smaller, modular chips that communicate with each other.

The ability to maintain 99.5% fidelity while scaling through connected modules positions them as a prominent contender in the race toward practical, large-scale quantum systems. This isn’t theoretical—their 36-qubit Cepheus-1-36Q system, built from four interconnected 9-qubit chips, demonstrates that high-fidelity quantum operations can be maintained even across chip boundaries. This modular approach improves system reliability, streamlines manufacturing, and supports real-world performance in ways monolithic designs simply can’t match.

Strategic Manufacturing Partnership And Improving Cash Position

The $100 million commitment from Rigetti and Quanta over five years, plus Quanta’s additional $35 million investment, provides both manufacturing expertise and capital for commercialization at scale. This isn’t just funding—it’s validation from a manufacturing giant that sees commercial viability in Rigetti’s technology. Quanta doesn’t make these commitments lightly; they see a path to production volumes that justify their investment. Rigetti also completed a $350 million at-the-market equity offering in June 2025, which has strengthened its cash position. Rigetti sits at $426 million in cash with minimal debt.

Government Validation and Revenue Stability

DARPA’s QBI program selection and consortium leadership demonstrate credibility and provide stable revenue streams for utility-scale quantum development by 2033. Government contracts generate sticky revenue that funds R&D while the commercial market matures. The Air Force Research Laboratory contract is exactly this kind of validation—the U.S. government betting on Rigetti’s approach to quantum networking.

Perfect Timing for Commercial Market Transition

Here’s where it gets really interesting. The quantum computing market is at an inflection point. The industry generated between $650 million to $750 million in revenue in 2024 and is expected to surpass $1 billion in 2025. The global quantum computing market is projected to grow from $1.6 billion in 2025 to $7.3 billion by 2030—that’s a compound annual growth rate of over 35%, according to a McKinsey & Company report.

As quantum computing transitions from research to commercial applications, Rigetti’s superior chiplet architecture and cloud-based services position them to capture disproportionate market share. They’re not just participating in a growing market; they’re uniquely positioned with technology that solves the scaling problem that others are struggling with and focusing on different methodologies to address the issue.

The Reality Check: Risks You Need to Understand

Overall, Rigetti Computing is leading the quantum stocks’ pack with rising investor interest, and the rally may continue to much higher levels in the coming years. But let’s be brutally honest—this sector demands caution.

Commercial application is still years away. While 2026-2030 shows promise for practical applications, mainstream, large-scale quantum computing is likely years away. You’re investing in a future that might take longer to materialize than current enthusiasm suggests.

The larger tech giants such as IBM, Google, Microsoft, and Honeywell are investing heavily in quantum computing, and they obviously have much deeper pockets. IBM and Google have made significant advances, and these companies can outspend Rigetti by orders of magnitude. The question isn’t whether they have more resources—it’s whether Rigetti’s architectural advantage can translate to market leadership before the giants catch up.

Investing in a single stock without comprehensive analysis can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

There are other risks as well, which we’ve captured in our separate analysis on RGTI stock downside potential. The volatility for RGTI stock is a feature of speculative growth investing. The same momentum that can drive 2,000% gains can evaporate just as quickly if sentiment shifts or technical milestones are missed.

The Bottom Line

Rigetti presents a high-risk, high-reward investment at a pivotal moment for quantum computing, defined by the firm’s genuinely impactful modular architecture and supporting government and manufacturing partnerships that create multiple growth avenues. While the technical differentiation is strong and the market timing looks favorable, this investment is only for those who can stomach extreme volatility, as the company faces competition from tech giants, a dependence on maturing technology, and the substantial risk that comes with needing near-perfect execution to achieve its considerable upside potential—potentially a 10x return.

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