Up 10% In The Past Month, Can Qualcomm Stock Continue Outperforming?
Qualcomm Inc. stock (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up around 10% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing better than the S&P 500 which was up just 1.6% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 9.2% and 17%, performing much better than the broader markets. Qualcomm’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $7.94 billion in Q2 ’21 to $11.16 billion in Q2 ’22. Additionally, COGS and other operating expenses rose at a slower rate, and operating income jumped from $2.17 billion to $3.86 billion over this period. Combined with a slightly lower effective tax rate, net income jumped, and EPS came in higher at $2.61 from $1.55 in Q2 ’21. Earlier this month, there were rumors of Apple struggling to design its own mobile chipsets, implying that Qualcomm might end up supplying chipsets to Apple for longer than expected. A lot of the recent rally also comes as a bounce back from the recent sharp drop in the company’s stock from $186 at the start of this year, to as low as $120 in late June.
Now, is QCOM stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is an average 53% chance of a rise in QCOM stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on QCOM Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about QCOM revenue and comparison to peers, see Qualcomm (QCOM) Revenue Comparison.
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Twenty-One Day: QCOM 10%, vs. S&P500 1.6%; Outperformed market
(12% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- QCOM stock gained 10% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.6%
- A change of 10% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 310 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 310 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 164 occasions
- This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: QCOM 17%, vs. S&P500 1%; Outperformed market
(2% likelihood event; 66% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- QCOM stock jumped 17% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1%
- A change of 17% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 47 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 47 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 31 occasions
- This points to a 66% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: QCOM 9.2%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market
(2% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next five days)
- QCOM stock rose 9.2% over a five-day trading period ending 7/15/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up a marginal 0.2% over this period.
- A change of 9.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 58 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 58 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 31 occasions
- This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Qualcomm has fallen 36% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can QCOM stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
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|S&P 500 Return||1%||-20%||71%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||3%||-21%||214%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/18/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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