After A Stellar Weekly Performance, What’s Next For Qualcomm Stock?

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QCOM: Qualcomm logo
QCOM
Qualcomm

Qualcomm stock (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up 23% in just one week (five trading days), completely outperforming the S&P 500 which was up around 2%. If you look at the change over the last ten and twenty-one days, the stock has returned 26% and 31%, respectively, thus having outperformed the market on both occasions. Qualcomm reported stellar full-year 2021 earnings this week, with revenue jumping to $33.57 billion from $23.53 billion in FY ’20, driven exclusively by a $10 billion rise in equipment and services revenue. With COGS and other operating expenses in control, operating margins rose from 26.5% to 29.2% over this period, and despite a slightly higher effective tax rate, EPS jumped from $4.58 in FY 2020 to$7.99 in FY 2021. These strong numbers helped drive a 23% jump in Qualcomm stock since the earnings announcement.

Now, is QCOM stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a negligible chance of a rise in Qualcomm stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on QCOM Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about QCOM historical returns and comparison to peers, see Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Return.

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Twenty-One Day: QCOM 31%, vs. S&P500 7.1%; Outperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 0% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • QCOM stock increased 31% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 7.1%
  • A change of 31% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 19 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 19 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 0 occasions
  • This points to a 0% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: QCOM 26%, vs. S&P500 2.9%; Outperformed market

(0% likelihood event; 30% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • QCOM stock increased 26% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.9%
  • A change of 26% or more over ten trading days is an almost 0% likelihood event, which has occurred 10 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 10 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 3 occasions
  • This points to a 30% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: QCOM 23%, vs. S&P500 1.9%; Outperformed market

(0% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

  • QCOM stock increased 23% over a five-day trading period ending 11/8/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.9%
  • A change of 23% or more over five trading days (one week) is an almost 0% likelihood event, which has occurred 6 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 6 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 3 occasions
  • While the sample size in this case is extremely small, it points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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