Can D-Wave Quantum Stock Fall 50%?
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D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) stock fell 34.3% in the month ending November 4, 2026. Shares of IonQ and Rigetti Computing also dropped during that period, while the S&P 500 slipped 1.6%. IonQ lost 31.8% and Rigetti 26.1% over the same dates. The decline left D-Wave at $10.38, which is 67.8% below its highest close of the past year. A 50% fall would not be new for D-Wave. From the November 4 close of $10.38, a drop of that size would leave the shares near $5.19. The stock lost 50% or more from its high to its low in three of the five market shocks it has traded through. How did those falls compare with the market’s, and how long did D-Wave take to recover?
D-Wave Has Fallen Far Deeper Than The S&P 500
D-Wave suffered its worst fall in a market shock during the Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock. The stock lost 73.0% at that time, compared with a 9.5% drop for the S&P 500. Across all five shocks, D-Wave fell an average of 51.2%, against 11.3% for the index over the same dates.
The stock climbed back to its pre-fall high after all five shocks, with a median recovery time of 3.0 months from the low. Two recoveries took more than a year, however. The climb back from the 2023 yield shock took 12.9 months, and the rebound from the 2022 inflation and Fed tightening shock took 30.7 months. D-Wave only began trading on August 8, 2022, partway through that earlier shock.
Does D-Wave Have Enough Cash To Fund Losses?
The company has enough cash for now, though its operating losses are far larger than a year ago. D-Wave held $546 million in cash and short-term investments against $48.1 million of debt at the end of June 2026. That cash was down from $819.3 million a year earlier, mostly because D-Wave paid about $250 million in cash for Quantum Circuits in January 2026, management said.
D-Wave is also burning cash faster. The company used $120 million of free cash flow over the twelve months ending in June 2026, more than double the $53.3 million from a year earlier. Combined with the roughly $250 million deal, that spending outpaces the $273.1 million drop in cash, indicating some money also came in from other sources.
Revenue has not grown alongside the spending. D-Wave reported $3.08 million in revenue for the second quarter of 2026, essentially flat on a year earlier. The operating loss for the quarter reached $53.3 million, about twice the $26.5 million reported a year before. Measured against sales, the twelve-month operating loss through June 2026 was D-Wave’s widest at any quarter-end since the end of 2021.
Where Is D-Wave Under Strain Right Now?
D-Wave expected most of its 2026 revenue to arrive late in the year. Management said on an August 6, 2026 call that both annealing quantum computer systems it expects to ship in 2026 will likely go out in the fourth quarter. That timing would make fourth-quarter revenue the majority of the year’s total. Those two shipments include the $20 million system D-Wave sold to Florida Atlantic University, which management expects to deliver in 2026.
Costs are also climbing. D-Wave’s gross margin fell to 55.4% in the second quarter of 2026 from 63.8% a year earlier. Management said higher personnel costs accounted for the decline.
Management also expects $29.3 million of its order backlog to turn into revenue over the next two years. That figure is down from $30.1 million in May 2026. A shareholder class action complaint was filed in October 2026 alleging disclosure deficiencies between February and August 2026; D-Wave has not yet formally responded to the complaint. When D-Wave reports third-quarter results in November 2026, the thing to watch is whether both system shipments are still on track for the fourth quarter.
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