Can You Stomach the Plunge in Primoris Services Stock?
Its history of deep, amplified drawdowns in market shocks is the real risk for shareholders to internalize now.
Primoris Services (PRIM) stock took a sharp 15.4% fall on June 9th, 2026, after management disclosed execution issues on solar projects. On its latest earnings call, the construction and engineering firm pointed to a “small number of solar projects” from 2024 that ran into cost pressures from labor issues, redesigns, and weather, forcing a cut to its full-year guidance. While the company works to complete these projects and stabilize its high-growth Renewables segment, the sudden drop puts a more urgent question on the table for any shareholder: how does this stock behave in a true, market-wide shock?
That recent dip is just a taste. The real test of an investor’s conviction comes when the entire market is selling off. The critical thing to internalize is not whether Primoris can fix its solar execution, but how far the stock can fall when broad market fear takes hold, and whether you have the fortitude to ride it out.
How Far Primoris Services Falls When Markets Drop
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When the market panics, Primoris Services stock has historically fallen harder. Across the 15 market shocks it has traded through, its average peak-to-trough drawdown was about 23%, compared to about 16% for the S&P 500. That amplified downside is the core risk here. Its single deepest plunge was a 58% drop during the 2020 COVID-19 Crash.
The stock has been hit hardest during shocks categorized as a “Growth & Demand Scare,” where it has fallen 32% on average. Those weren’t abstract events; they were the real-world crises of the 2015-2016 China Devaluation, the Q4 2018 Fed policy scare, and that same COVID-19 crash. That is the scale of the drop you are carrying exposure to.
The Wait: Primoris Services’s Road Back From a Crash
Surviving the fall is one thing; waiting for the recovery is another. Historically, the climb back has not been instant. Of the shocks it has fully recovered from, Primoris Services took a median of about 6 months to reclaim its pre-shock high. But medians can hide painful outliers.
Its slowest full recovery was after the 2013 Taper Tantrum, a period that saw the stock take about 84 months to get back to even. A quick rebound in the past is no guarantee of one in the future; you have to be prepared for the possibility of being underwater for a considerable time.
Every Major Shock Primoris Services Has Traded Through
Peak-to-trough drawdown in each shock, and how long the stock took to reclaim its pre-shock high. Stock vs. the S&P 500, long-duration bonds, and its sector.
| Shock Event | Stock | S&P 500 | Bonds | Sector | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | No decline | -8.6% | No decline | -7.0% | – |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | -57% | -53% | No decline | -60% | ~20 mo |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | -27% | -15% | No decline | -18% | ~6 mo |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | -26% | -18% | -1.1% | -22% | ~3 mo |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | -10% | -0.2% | -17% | No decline | ~84 mo |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | -44% | -6.8% | -5.0% | -8.3% | ~36 mo |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | -11% | -12% | -4.4% | -11% | ~3 mo |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | -9.2% | -3.7% | -15% | -3.3% | ~5 mo |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | -26% | -19% | -2.2% | -24% | ~24 mo |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -58% | -34% | -0.7% | -42% | ~9 mo |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | -35% | -24% | -35% | -20% | ~11 mo |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | -7.9% | -6.7% | -4.3% | -6.2% | ~3 mo |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | -6.1% | -9.5% | -17% | -12% | ~5 mo |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | -2.3% | -7.8% | -1.2% | -1.1% | ~2 mo |
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | -26% | -19% | -3.8% | -16% | ~2 mo |
[1] Summer 2007 Credit Crunch: Subprime hedge fund failures froze interbank lending, prompting an emergency Fed rate cut.
[2] 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis: Lehman’s collapse froze global credit, crashing every asset class and spiking unemployment.
[3] 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash: Greece’s deficit revelation collapsed European banks and triggered the May Flash Crash.
[4] 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion: US credit downgrade and European sovereign stress triggered a broad risk-off selloff.
[5] 2013 Taper Tantrum: Bernanke’s taper hint spiked Treasury yields, triggering emerging market capital flight.
[6] 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse: OPEC refused to cut output, crashing crude from $100 to $26.
[7] 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare: Yuan devaluation sparked global recession fears, crushing cyclicals and emerging markets.
[8] 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff: Trump’s election spurred fiscal stimulus hopes, rotating capital from bonds into cyclicals.
[9] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[10] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[11] 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[12] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[13] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[14] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[15] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.
Is Today’s Primoris Services A Different Company?
The Primoris of 2013 is not the Primoris of today. Management states the recent problems were contained to “six projects in total” bid in 2024 and that they have since made “targeted leadership changes” and stopped pursuing work in the challenging new geographies. The Utility segment is showing “strong year-over-year top-line growth,” and the company sees the “most favorable conditions for natural gas generation in more than a decade,” with a project funnel over $7 billion.
At the same time, the execution stumbles were significant enough to cut full-year guidance, and management acknowledged that the “small number of solar projects”0 This creates near-term uncertainty. The historical pattern of deep falls during growth scares feels particularly relevant when the latest stumble came from its high-growth Renewables segment, making it unclear if the business is sturdy enough to break its old pattern.
Sizing Up Your Primoris Services Risk
To make the risk of a major drawdown concrete, the stock’s deepest 58% drawdown, applied to a position sized at 10% of a portfolio, would have cut about 6% from your entire portfolio’s value. At a 20% position weight, that hit becomes about 12%. That is a sizable impact to absorb while waiting for a recovery that could take months or longer.
The only lever you truly control is your exposure. This history doesn’t dictate a sale, but it strongly argues for disciplined position sizing and ensuring your portfolio is genuinely diversified. The key signal of improving stability will be the conversion of verbal project awards into firm backlog.
That discipline is exactly what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is built to deliver: it pairs the upside of strong businesses with the stability of a 30-stock portfolio, sized and rebalanced with discipline, and has a track record of outpacing the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. Pairing a concentrated holding with an approach like this is how you keep compounding without a single drawdown derailing the plan.