How Will Palantir Technologies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $334 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.6 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Palantir Technologies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 20%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -12%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/2/2026 | 6.8% | -3.3% | 3.7% |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -14.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 7.8% | 13.7% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | -12.0% | -4.3% | 5.0% |
| 2/3/2025 | 24.0% | 39.3% | 7.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 23.5% | 45.5% | 68.7% |
| 8/5/2024 | 10.4% | 22.0% | 27.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | -15.1% | -16.9% | -8.9% |
| 2/5/2024 | 30.8% | 49.8% | 56.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 20.4% | 23.9% | 35.9% |
| 8/7/2023 | -5.3% | -12.6% | -15.0% |
| 5/8/2023 | 23.4% | 23.0% | 89.8% |
| 2/13/2023 | 21.2% | 11.3% | 3.8% |
| 11/7/2022 | -11.5% | 6.1% | -11.9% |
| 8/8/2022 | -14.2% | -13.4% | -36.4% |
| 5/9/2022 | -21.3% | -12.0% | -3.7% |
| 2/17/2022 | -15.7% | -15.3% | -8.2% |
| 11/9/2021 | -9.3% | -12.5% | -25.9% |
| 8/12/2021 | 11.4% | 13.1% | 17.6% |
| 5/11/2021 | 9.4% | 10.8% | 30.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 20.4% | 22.0% | 27.0% |
| Median Negative | -12.0% | -12.5% | -11.9% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 49.8% | 89.8% |
| Max Negative | -21.3% | -16.9% | -36.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 6.5% | 27.5% | 17.7% |
| 3Y History | 23.6% | 34.5% | -2.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Palantir Technologies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Palantir Technologies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR Earnings Dates | PLTR | MSFT | IBM |
| 2/2/2026 | 6.8% | -12.1% | 7.0% |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.9% | -4.5% | 6.0% |
| 8/4/2025 | 7.8% | 4.4% | -10.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | -12.0% | 10.4% | 1.5% |
| 2/3/2025 | 24.0% | -7.1% | 14.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 23.5% | -5.6% | -11.4% |
| 8/5/2024 | 10.4% | -6.6% | -0.4% |
| 5/6/2024 | -15.1% | 3.6% | -8.4% |
| 2/5/2024 | 30.8% | -0.7% | 5.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 20.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% |
| 8/7/2023 | -5.3% | -5.9% | 7.9% |
| 5/8/2023 | 23.4% | 12.1% | -2.3% |
| 2/13/2023 | 21.2% | 12.1% | -1.2% |
| 11/7/2022 | -11.5% | -9.1% | 12.9% |
| 8/8/2022 | -14.2% | 11.3% | -4.0% |
| 5/9/2022 | -21.3% | -2.1% | 5.4% |
| 2/17/2022 | -15.7% | 1.0% | -1.8% |
| 11/9/2021 | -9.3% | 8.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/12/2021 | 11.4% | 1.1% | 4.9% |
| CORRELATION | -25.0% | 20.8% | |
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