Palantir Stock At $172: Pricier Than The Anthropic IPO?
More on the Anthropic IPO: our Anthropic IPO storyline page collects our pieces on it.
Your company probably switched on an AI assistant this year. Someone had to decide which files it may read and who checks its answers. That wiring is what Palantir sells; its US business customers reached 686 in the third quarter, up 29%.
Next week the company behind one of those assistants is set to go public. Anthropic, the maker of Claude, plans to price its IPO around November 18, CNBC reported, at $70 to $78 a share, about $1.26 trillion to $1.41 trillion fully diluted. Next to Anthropic, is Palantir the pricier AI stock?
Yes, by a wide margin. On its November 2 earnings call, Palantir’s management said AI’s value is flowing to very few companies, naming Anthropic next to itself. Now Anthropic lists. Its September-quarter revenue was $16.96 billion, 7.3 times Palantir’s $2.31 billion and about twice Palantir’s whole 2026 forecast of $8.53 billion.
Sales 7.3 times Palantir’s make ANT hard to ignore. In a portfolio of a few million dollars, Palantir, Nvidia and index funds may form one big AI bet. How much would ANT add? A Trefis partner firm can tally it in a free 15-minute call.
Which AI Stock Is Priced Richer?
Price per dollar of yearly sales, using the latest quarter times four:
| Stock | Value | Latest quarter sales | Growth | Price per $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic at $70-$78 | $1.26T-$1.41T | $16.96B | +1,127% | 18.6x-20.7x |
| Palantir | $415B | $2.31B | +96% | 44.8x |
| Snowflake | $106B | $1.55B | +35% | 17.2x |
| Nvidia | $4.19T | $96.2B | +106% | 10.9x |
Values at Wednesday’s close (shares outstanding); Anthropic’s at the IPO range, fully diluted. Latest quarter: September for Anthropic and Palantir, July for Snowflake and Nvidia. Growth is from a year earlier.
Palantir costs 2.2 to 2.4 times as much per dollar of sales as Anthropic would, while growing less than a tenth as fast. What Palantir has, and Anthropic doesn’t yet, is profit: $1.08 billion of operating income in the quarter, 47% of sales. Anthropic lost $567 million on that line and expects its growth to slow, possibly sharply.
Will the listing pull money from Palantir? The base deal sells $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion of stock, 14% to 16% of Palantir’s market value. If fund managers raise that cash by trimming their priciest AI holding, Palantir is first in line on this table.
| 5 years to Wednesday | Return a year | Gain per pain | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir | 49.6% | 1.41 | -74.4% |
| Nvidia | 41.9% | 1.41 | -66.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 11.9% | 0.87 | -24.5% |
| Snowflake | -4.0% | -0.27 | -73.0% |
Gain per pain: yearly return above T-bills for each unit of downside swings in monthly returns. Palantir’s worst drop ran from November 2021 to December 2022.
What Should You Do This Week?
Palantir has paid for its pain as well as Nvidia and better than the S&P 500. But it fell 74.4% once, and it closed Wednesday at $172.40, 17.5% below its October 9 closing high. Size it from that fall: if you can stand to lose 2% of your portfolio, keep Palantir under about 2.7%.
Don’t sell Palantir just to chase ANT on day one. Watch two checks instead: where ANT trades against its range in its first week, from about November 19, and whether Palantir’s next quarter meets its own forecast of about $2.65 billion.
The risk: if ANT soars well above its range, Palantir’s price can look tame by comparison and rally while you wait. If AI selling returns, both can fall together.
Is Palantir’s Premium Built On Being Rare?
Part of a premium pays for being one of the few, and that part shrinks when the few become many. The part built on profit stays: Palantir’s 47% operating margin is what a new listing can’t take away. We put the same price-per-sales question to software stocks in Is The Anthropic IPO Bad News For Salesforce And ServiceNow Stock?
What Should You Ask Next?
We’ll update these numbers when the IPO prices. Follow the Anthropic story with us.
Not Sure Palantir Is Worth It At This Price?
At about 45 times its sales, you don’t have to bet on one stock to earn. The Trefis Income Solution holds 50 companies chosen to keep paying dividends, each with at least 10 straight years of dividends, yielding about 3x the S&P 500. See if it fits your plan.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.