How Will Pinterest Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $13 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $320 Mil in operating profits and net income of $417 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Pinterest’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 14%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -14%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/12/2026 | -16.8% | -4.2% | -1.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | -21.8% | -16.9% | -18.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | -10.3% | -7.2% | -3.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 4.9% | 15.7% | 22.5% |
| 2/6/2025 | 19.1% | 16.4% | -5.5% |
| 11/7/2024 | -14.0% | -13.4% | -2.6% |
| 7/30/2024 | -14.5% | -22.8% | -16.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | 21.0% | 25.3% | 23.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -9.5% | -10.2% | -15.7% |
| 10/30/2023 | 19.0% | 23.2% | 32.6% |
| 8/1/2023 | -3.8% | -7.5% | -5.8% |
| 4/27/2023 | -15.7% | -23.8% | -11.1% |
| 2/6/2023 | -5.2% | -11.4% | -7.7% |
| 10/27/2022 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 11.3% |
| 8/1/2022 | 11.6% | 14.6% | 9.9% |
| 4/27/2022 | 13.6% | 29.6% | 4.7% |
| 2/3/2022 | 11.2% | 4.2% | -5.8% |
| 11/4/2021 | 5.9% | 3.1% | -13.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -18.2% | -16.3% | -20.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 13.6% | 15.7% | 16.9% |
| Median Negative | -14.2% | -12.4% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 21.0% | 29.6% | 32.6% |
| Max Negative | -21.8% | -23.8% | -20.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 11.5% | -28.6% | -30.2% |
| 3Y History | 16.1% | -22.1% | -0.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Pinterest stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Pinterest. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINS Earnings Dates | PINS | META | SNAP | ETSY |
| 2/12/2026 | -16.8% | -2.8% | -18.4% | N/A* |
| 11/4/2025 | -21.8% | -16.5% | N/A* | -10.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | -10.3% | 9.6% | -19.7% | -2.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 4.9% | 8.9% | -9.6% | 10.1% |
| 2/6/2025 | 19.1% | 5.2% | -7.8% | N/A* |
| 11/7/2024 | -14.0% | -0.0% | N/A* | 11.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | 21.0% | -12.8% | 32.0% | N/A* |
| 2/8/2024 | -9.5% | 19.1% | -36.4% | N/A* |
| 10/30/2023 | 19.0% | 1.0% | -0.1% | N/A* |
| 8/1/2023 | -3.8% | 8.1% | -9.8% | N/A* |
| 4/27/2023 | -15.7% | 13.9% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/6/2023 | -5.2% | 21.5% | 4.4% | N/A* |
| 10/27/2022 | 13.8% | -24.6% | -11.4% | N/A* |
| 8/1/2022 | 11.6% | -5.7% | -41.7% | 8.5% |
| 4/27/2022 | 13.6% | N/A* | -7.9% | N/A* |
| 2/3/2022 | 11.2% | -26.4% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/4/2021 | 5.9% | 2.2% | -30.4% | 13.2% |
| 7/29/2021 | -18.2% | -4.0% | 19.0% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -44.2% | 10.0% | 60.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after PINS
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