What Will Decide Pfizer Stock Over The Next Six Months?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Pfizer (PFE) stock has returned 20.6% over the past year, including dividends, against 12.2% for the S&P 500. During its November 3, 2026 call, management said losses of exclusivity on some of its drugs will weigh on 2027, even as it raised the company’s outlook for 2026. The dates below, listed roughly soonest first, are the ones most likely to move Pfizer stock by May 2027.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Pfizer gives its 2027 guidance, its first outlook for a year with exclusivity losses and IRA price negotiation | mid-December 2026 | Either way |
| Pfizer delivers nearly all of its $7.2 billion of net cost savings | by the end of 2026 | In its favor |
| Eliquis loses exclusivity in international markets | the end of 2026 | Against the stock |
| Pfizer reports fiscal Q4 2026 results | February 2027 | Either way |
| Results from the MEVPRO-1 study | first quarter of 2027 | Either way |
The 2027 Guidance In Mid-December
Management said it will give its 2027 guidance around the middle of December 2026, just as it did a year earlier. That guide will provide the first set of numbers Pfizer puts on a year when two of its products enter the price negotiation program under the IRA, adding to the exclusivity losses management has already named. On November 3, management raised its 2026 revenue guide to a range of $62 billion to $64 billion. That range lands at $63 billion at the midpoint, up from $61.5 billion in the August guide. The 2027 revenue range is the figure to watch in mid-December 2026.
Eliquis Losing Exclusivity In International Markets
Management expects Eliquis to lose exclusivity in international markets at the end of 2026, and it also named Ibrance and Xtandi in the U.S. Those losses are the main weight on 2027 that management has described. Pfizer is leaning on its launched and acquired products to make up for them, and that group brought in $3.8 billion of revenue in fiscal Q3 2026, with its growth driven mainly by Padcev. Management said it will keep investing behind those products to soften the exclusivity losses over the next several years. Revenue from the newer products is the measure to watch in the fiscal Q4 2026 report, expected in February 2027.
Pfizer’s Cost Savings Program
Management said Pfizer is on track to deliver nearly all of its anticipated $7.2 billion of net cost savings by the end of 2026. That is a large sum for a company with $63.6 billion of revenue, as reported, over the twelve months to September 2026. Not all of it reaches profit, though: management said part of the savings came from research spending and was put back into research, as Pfizer spends more on its pipeline. In the next phase, management expects another $2.5 billion of net savings from 2027 through 2029. Operating costs are the line to watch in the February report.
Can You Hold Pfizer Through These Dates?
Pfizer stock’s worst fall over the past year was 17.1%, from its close on April 1, 2026 to its close on June 25, 2026, measured on price alone. A fall of that size is what holding through the December guide, the loss of exclusivity on Eliquis in international markets and the February report could look like. If you could watch the value of your Pfizer holding fall that far without selling, that holding is sized for these dates; if not, a smaller holding is the one you could keep through them.
Does This Mean You Should Act On PFE?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.