Should I Buy Vistra Stock While It Is Down?
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Buying Vistra (VST) stock now requires betting that the company’s power plants can keep earning more, as management expects, even while prices in the Texas ERCOT market trend lower. The stock lost 24.5% over the past twelve months while the S&P 500 returned 12.2%. Still, management reported record adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026. So what does a buyer get for today’s lower price?
What Does Vistra Stock Offer At Today’s Price?
Investors pay 7.8 times the cash generated by Vistra’s operations over the twelve months to September 30, 2026, against 15.4 times for the S&P 500. For that price, buyers get a company that kept 22.6% of its revenue as operating profit over the same twelve months, compared with 19.0% for the index.
That margin fluctuates significantly from quarter to quarter. It reached 31.1% in the third quarter of 2026, climbing from 13.8% in the previous quarter. The company also said its third-quarter net income of $1.14 billion included a $559 million unrealized gain on hedges expected to settle in future years, meaning part of that quarter’s profit was a gain on paper.
Can Vistra Grow Through Weaker Texas Prices?
Management expects to, helped by plants it has bought and power contracts it has signed. On the November 6, 2026 call, management introduced 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion, which includes the Cogentrix acquisition and a power purchase agreement with Meta at its Perry nuclear plant.
Vistra closed the Cogentrix acquisition on October 30, 2026, adding about 5,500 megawatts of natural gas capacity. Management put the net price at about $4 billion and now expects the deal to deliver what it called high single-digit accretion to adjusted free cash flow in the near term. Further out, management said it sees about 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow per share, before spending on growth, from 2027 to 2030, assuming spare cash goes to share buybacks.
Texas is where that plan is most exposed, since just under 40% of Vistra’s generation earnings come from its Texas fleet. Management cited that share as a sign its business is spread across markets. Management said ERCOT prices have been trending lower, and put that partly down to crypto mining sites going offline to convert into data centers and to a data center audit and permitting pause. Management does not expect the weaker Texas prices to last, but it also said slow grid connections remain a timing constraint on contracts for its gas plants.
What Vistra Reports Next, And When
Vistra is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2026 results in February 2027. That report closes out 2026, a year for which management narrowed its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion. Management expects to finish above the midpoint of its original range for a fifth year in a row. In that report, watch whether management keeps the 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance it gave in November for the first full year with the Cogentrix plants.
Still Holding Vistra After The Drop?
Selling a fallen stock can still bring a tax bill if you bought long ago, and holding keeps the risk. A free 30-minute strategy review with our partner advisory firm covers a floor under a large position and a lower-tax unwind.
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