Which Dates Could Move PepsiCo Stock Most?
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PepsiCo (PEP) stock gained 10.0% in the month to November 12, 2026, while the S&P 500 lost 1.6%. On October 8, management cut its fiscal 2026 core EPS growth guide to 3.0% at the midpoint, from 6.0%. For the rebound to last, PepsiCo must protect profit from rising costs and lift North America sales. Below are the events most likely to move PepsiCo stock over the next six months.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Higher commodity costs as PepsiCo’s cost hedges roll off | fiscal Q4 2026 | Against the stock |
| Faster sales growth, with North America beverages the least certain part | fiscal Q4 2026 | In its favor |
| About $8.9 billion returned to shareholders in dividends and buybacks | fiscal 2026 | In its favor |
| Fiscal Q4 2026 results and the first 2027 outlook | February 2027 | Either way |
| Coca-Cola’s fiscal Q4 2026 report, a read on demand for drinks, which PepsiCo also sells | February 2027 | Either way |
Rising Input Costs At PepsiCo
Higher commodity costs will reach PepsiCo in fiscal Q4 2026. During its October 8 call, the company said its cost hedges, which are typically 6 to 12 months long, are starting to roll off, and that commodities continue to ramp up.
Profit has held up so far. Gross margin in fiscal Q3 2026 was up from a year earlier, at 54.4%. Management held its fiscal 2026 organic revenue growth guide at 3.0% even as its earnings guide came down, so the pressure it expects is on profit, not sales. The company also said a third-quarter tariff benefit in its North America beverages business will go away. Gross margin in the fiscal Q4 2026 report is the number to watch.
PepsiCo’s Beverage Business In North America
PepsiCo expects sales growth to improve in fiscal Q4 2026, and further in 2027, up from organic revenue growth of 3.1% in fiscal Q3 2026. That improvement is least certain in North America beverages.
PepsiCo Beverages North America recorded $28.2 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, up 1.5% from a year earlier. On the October 8 call, management said it does not feel good about the beverage business. The company plans more investment in its brands and is looking at refranchising more areas to its bottling partners. Organic revenue growth in the fiscal Q4 2026 report will show whether the improvement arrived.
Fourth-Quarter Results And PepsiCo’s 2027 Outlook
PepsiCo is expected to report fiscal Q4 2026 results in February 2027. Management said it will give more detail on its 2027 expectations then. Executives chose not to give a partial view on the October 8 call, so whether profit holds up against costs and whether North America picks up both stay open until that report.
The 2027 plan also covers pricing. Management said it is setting guardrails so that 2027 price points stay below $25 in most of its take-home business, to keep its products affordable. The 2027 earnings outlook in the February report is the figure to watch.
Can You Hold PepsiCo Stock Through February?
Over the past year, PepsiCo stock fell 27.4% from its February 6, 2026 close to its October 7 close, and anyone holding through these dates should be ready for moves of that kind. Today, profit has held up while management expects costs to rise, and the North America beverage business has not yet picked up. One figure to watch is sales growth at PepsiCo Beverages North America, in the February 2027 report. If a repeat of that fall would push you to sell, your position is larger than one you can hold through February.
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