PepsiCo Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock

October 7th, 2026 · by Trefis Team
PEPYTD-9.7%SPYYTD+14.9%XLPYTD+6.6%
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PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 8, 2026. The company has a market value of about $171.7 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $96.9 billion in revenue and $14.5 billion in operating profit, with net income of $10.5 billion.

The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.

See the earnings reaction history of all stocks

Image from Pixabay

The Post-Earnings Record For PepsiCo Stock

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:

  • There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 58% of the time.
  • Over the last three years the share is the same, at 58%.
  • The median of the 11 positive 1D returns is 2.3%, and the median of the 8 negative ones is -3.1%.
  • The largest one-day reactions were 7.5% and -4.9%.

The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.

Earnings Date 1D 5D 21D
7/9/2026 -3.3% -5.0% -2.9%
4/16/2026 2.3% -0.7% -4.0%
2/3/2026 4.9% 7.3% 5.6%
10/8/2025 4.2% 8.9% 2.0%
7/17/2025 7.5% 7.6% 9.8%
4/24/2025 -4.9% -4.7% -8.5%
2/4/2025 -4.5% -3.9% 2.4%
10/7/2024 1.9% 5.3% 0.4%
7/11/2024 0.2% 3.9% 5.4%
4/23/2024 -3.0% -0.2% 2.6%
2/9/2024 -3.6% -3.4% -4.5%
10/10/2023 1.9% -0.2% 3.6%
7/13/2023 2.4% 1.7% 0.3%
4/25/2023 2.3% 3.3% 0.3%
2/9/2023 0.9% 2.8% 1.2%
10/12/2022 4.2% 7.7% 9.8%
7/12/2022 -0.6% -1.3% 2.4%
4/26/2022 -0.3% -3.4% -3.4%
2/10/2022 -2.1% -3.3% -10.0%

 

Statistic 1D 5D 21D
# Positive 11 9 13
# Negative 8 10 6
Median Positive 2.3% 5.3% 2.4%
Median Negative -3.1% -3.4% -4.3%
Max Positive 7.5% 8.9% 9.8%
Max Negative -4.9% -5.0% -10.0%

Does The First Move Carry On?

Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: across the five-year window, all remain below 0.40 in absolute terms, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.

History 1D vs next 5D 1D vs next 21D 5D vs next 21D
5 Years 0.22 -0.01 -0.31
3 Years 0.14 -0.18 -0.43

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

General Mills (GIS) usually reports a few weeks before PepsiCo, and has already reported this season. The table compares General Mills’ one-day reaction to its own earnings with PepsiCo’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlation is -0.55; the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed PepsiCo’s, and a negative value means it has tended to point the other way.

PEP Earnings Date PEP 1D GIS 1D
7/9/2026 -3.3% 8.5%
4/16/2026 2.3% -3.0%
10/8/2025 4.2% -0.8%
7/17/2025 7.5% -5.1%
10/7/2024 1.9% 0.7%
7/11/2024 0.2% -4.6%
10/10/2023 1.9% 0.0%
7/13/2023 2.4% -5.2%
10/12/2022 4.2% 5.7%
7/12/2022 -0.6% 6.3%
Correlation – -0.55

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