OWL Stock Falls -13% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Analyst Cuts
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) – a provider of permanent capital solutions for middle market companies – hit a 7-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -13%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $1.4 Bil over the last 7 days and currently stands at $9.1 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 8.7% compared to 1.4% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Analyst Price Target Reductions
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- TD Cowen, UBS, Barclays Lower Targets
- Consensus EPS Estimates Revised Lower
- Impact: Negative Sentiment Shift, Increased Selling Pressure
[2] Institutional Selling Pressure
- Investment Manager Sells $10.1M Shares
- Multiple Shareholder Class Action Notices
- Impact: Reduced Institutional Conviction, Sustained Downward Price Momentum
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in OWL stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its Moderate valuation, this makes the stock look Risky (For details, see Buy or Sell OWL).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -13% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for OWL stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | OWL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -2.5% | -0.4% |
| 7D (Current Streak) | -13.5% | 0.9% |
| 1M (21D) | -9.0% | 0.6% |
| 3M (63D) | -16.4% | 0.7% |
| YTD 2026 | -8.7% | 1.4% |
| 2025 | -32.8% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 61.8% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 47.4% | 24.2% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 48 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 71 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 28 | 25 |
| 4D | 13 | 21 |
| 5D | 5 | 11 |
| 6D | 2 | 8 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 6 |
| Total >=3 D | 48 | 71 |
Key Financials for Blue Owl Capital (OWL)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.7 Bil | $2.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $317.8 Mil | $606.8 Mil |
| Net Income | $54.3 Mil | $109.6 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $703.1 Mil | $728.0 Mil |
| Operating Income | $99.3 Mil | $112.7 Mil |
| Net Income | $17.4 Mil | $6.3 Mil |
The losing streak OWL stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.