O’Reilly Automotive Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The company has a market value of about $75.1 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $18.6 billion in revenue and $3.6 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.7 billion.
How the stock moves after the release will depend on how the results and outlook compare with expectations. History offers a baseline: how often, and how far, the stock has moved after past reports.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
O’Reilly Automotive’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 53% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 36%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 10 positive 1D returns is 3.3%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -3.6%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 8.4% and -12.6%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/29/2026 | -3.6% | 3.1% | -3.1% |
| 4/29/2026 | 8.4% | 3.4% | -5.2% |
| 2/4/2026 | -4.0% | -2.7% | -2.2% |
| 10/22/2025 | -2.9% | -6.6% | -2.2% |
| 7/23/2025 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 7.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | -2.1% | 2.5% | -1.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | 0.04% | -3.1% | 0.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | -3.5% | -8.0% | -10.7% |
| 2/7/2024 | -4.3% | -1.7% | 1.6% |
| 10/25/2023 | 5.3% | 8.1% | 12.8% |
| 7/26/2023 | -4.8% | -4.9% | -3.2% |
| 4/26/2023 | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| 2/8/2023 | 3.8% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| 10/26/2022 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 10.1% |
| 7/27/2022 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| 4/27/2022 | -12.6% | -11.9% | -10.4% |
| 2/9/2022 | 2.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -4.0% | -3.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.4% | 9.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.6% | -11.9% | -10.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, And 21D Post-Earnings Returns
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. All five-year correlations are below 0.40 in absolute terms, so over that span the early move has not reliably predicted what followed. Over the last three years, though, a 1D move has tended to reverse over the next 21 days (-0.52).
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.11 | -0.26 | -0.21 |
| 3 Years | -0.33 | -0.52 | -0.23 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Genuine Parts (GPC) usually reports about 6 days before O’Reilly Automotive, and has already reported this season. Its stock fell 5.1% on its October 20 report, though GPC’s moves have shown little link to O’Reilly’s. The table compares Genuine Parts’ one-day reaction to its own earnings with O’Reilly Automotive’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlation is -0.08; the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed O’Reilly Automotive’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| ORLY Earnings Date | ORLY 1D | GPC 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/29/2026 | -3.6% | -2.7% |
| 4/29/2026 | 8.4% | 2.1% |
| 10/22/2025 | -2.9% | 2.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | 2.9% | 7.6% |
| 4/23/2025 | -2.1% | 2.8% |
| 10/23/2024 | 0.04% | -21.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.0% | -0.8% |
| 4/24/2024 | -3.5% | 11.2% |
| 10/25/2023 | 5.3% | -12.5% |
| 7/26/2023 | -4.8% | -7.7% |
| 4/26/2023 | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| 10/26/2022 | 4.6% | -0.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | -12.6% | 0.3% |
| Correlation | – | -0.08 |
An earnings release can move one stock sharply in either direction. A diversified portfolio spreads that risk. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds about 30 quality businesses, rebalanced with rules, and has a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.