ON Semiconductor Reports Soon: How Has The Stock Reacted To Past Earnings?
ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, November 2, 2026. The company has a market value of about $29.4 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $6.2 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in operating profit, with net income of $630 million.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
The Post-Earnings Record For ON Semiconductor Stock
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 65% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 73%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 13 positive 1D returns is 4.1%, and the median of the 7 negative ones is -8.4%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 14.4% and -21.8%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/3/2026 | 0.5% | -0.8% | -9.6% |
| 5/4/2026 | 0.6% | 5.1% | 31.3% |
| 2/9/2026 | 3.5% | 10.5% | -9.0% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.8% | -4.5% | 2.8% |
| 8/4/2025 | -15.6% | -16.1% | -13.9% |
| 5/5/2025 | -8.4% | -2.2% | 13.0% |
| 2/10/2025 | -8.2% | 1.1% | -16.4% |
| 10/28/2024 | 1.4% | -0.4% | 1.6% |
| 7/29/2024 | 11.5% | -3.2% | 6.6% |
| 4/29/2024 | 4.1% | 3.4% | 8.2% |
| 2/5/2024 | 9.5% | 14.1% | 8.7% |
| 10/30/2023 | -21.8% | -18.3% | -17.3% |
| 7/31/2023 | 2.5% | -2.6% | -10.9% |
| 5/1/2023 | 8.9% | 12.9% | 16.7% |
| 2/6/2023 | -0.6% | 3.6% | -2.7% |
| 10/31/2022 | -9.0% | -6.4% | 4.8% |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.7% | 1.3% | 4.1% |
| 5/2/2022 | 6.7% | 5.8% | 16.4% |
| 2/7/2022 | 8.4% | 2.7% | -2.8% |
| 11/1/2021 | 14.4% | 23.0% | 27.8% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 5.1% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -8.4% | -3.2% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 14.4% | 23.0% | 31.3% |
| Max Negative | -21.8% | -18.3% | -17.3% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. Over five years none of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed. The 3-year 1D vs next 5D figure of -0.47 hints at a partial reversal, but it rests on only 11 releases.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.35 | -0.23 | -0.06 |
| 3 Years | -0.47 | -0.20 | -0.29 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) usually reports about 6 days before ON Semiconductor, and has already reported this season. Its stock fell 0.7% the day after its October 27 report. The table compares NXP Semiconductors’ one-day reaction to its own earnings with ON Semiconductor’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlation is 0.00; the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed ON Semiconductor’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
| ON Earnings Date | ON 1D | NXPI 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 8/3/2026 | 0.5% | -7.0% |
| 5/4/2026 | 0.6% | 25.5% |
| 2/9/2026 | 3.5% | -4.5% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.8% | -3.9% |
| 8/4/2025 | -15.6% | -0.1% |
| 5/5/2025 | -8.4% | -6.9% |
| 2/10/2025 | -8.2% | -1.1% |
| 7/29/2024 | 11.5% | -7.6% |
| 7/31/2023 | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 2/6/2023 | -0.6% | 2.7% |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.7% | 0.2% |
| 2/7/2022 | 8.4% | 1.3% |
| Correlation | – | 0.00 |
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