How Will nVent Electric Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
nVent Electric (NYSE:NVT) is set to report its earnings on Friday, October 31, 2025. The company has $17 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $537 Mil in operating profits and net income of $586 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager — whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients with higher returns while taking on lower levels of risk versus the benchmark index.
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nVent Electric’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 68% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.5%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -2.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/1/2025 | 14.6% | 13.6% | 15.3% |
| 5/2/2025 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 14.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.5% | 6.2% | -13.4% |
| 11/1/2024 | -8.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | -2.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 5/3/2024 | 5.5% | 14.1% | 10.5% |
| 2/6/2024 | -1.9% | 1.2% | 10.0% |
| 10/27/2023 | -2.0% | 5.6% | 16.0% |
| 7/28/2023 | 1.7% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| 4/19/2023 | 3.0% | 1.7% | -3.0% |
| 2/7/2023 | 7.4% | 12.1% | 14.0% |
| 10/28/2022 | 6.8% | 6.2% | 15.0% |
| 7/29/2022 | 1.0% | -0.9% | -2.8% |
| 4/29/2022 | -2.0% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| 2/8/2022 | 0.6% | -2.5% | 0.3% |
| 10/28/2021 | 6.7% | 16.4% | 12.3% |
| 8/3/2021 | 6.6% | 4.1% | 8.7% |
| 4/29/2021 | 0.9% | 2.9% | 7.2% |
| 2/9/2021 | -2.9% | 1.1% | 20.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 17 | 16 |
| # Negative | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 5.4% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -1.7% | -3.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.6% | 16.4% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.4% | -2.5% | -13.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -37.8% | -40.2% | -30.2% |
| 3Y History | -55.7% | -43.0% | -20.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of nVent Electric stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before nVent Electric. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NVT Earnings Dates | NVT | PNR | CR |
| 8/1/2025 | 14.6% | -4.1% | 1.8% |
| 5/2/2025 | 5.7% | 8.2% | 13.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.5% | 0.4% | 10.5% |
| 11/1/2024 | -8.4% | 0.2% | 3.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | -2.5% | -5.3% | -9.2% |
| 5/3/2024 | 5.5% | 1.5% | 9.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | -1.9% | 0.9% | 9.9% |
| 10/27/2023 | -2.0% | -3.0% | 10.4% |
| 7/28/2023 | 1.7% | 1.3% | 3.2% |
| 2/7/2023 | 7.4% | 4.0% | N/A* |
| 10/28/2022 | 6.8% | 1.3% | N/A* |
| 7/29/2022 | 1.0% | 1.8% | N/A* |
| 4/29/2022 | -2.0% | -4.9% | N/A* |
| 2/8/2022 | 0.6% | -3.6% | N/A* |
| 10/28/2021 | 6.7% | -0.2% | N/A* |
| 8/3/2021 | 6.6% | 6.8% | N/A* |
| 4/29/2021 | 0.9% | 1.5% | N/A* |
| 2/9/2021 | -2.9% | -2.1% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 28.2% | -2.6% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after NVT
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