Is NVIDIA Stock About To Rebound?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock lost 25.4% in the month to November 10, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell 3.6%. The stock is now back near where it began two big rallies in 2025. Buying here is a bet that this price holds again, and that NVIDIA’s data center revenue keeps growing even though management expects gross margin to fall as memory prices rise. So how reliably has NVIDIA stock bounced from this price?
How Often Has NVIDIA Stock Bounced From This Price?
NVIDIA stock has bounced from this price, but less reliably in the past two years than its two big rallies suggest. The stock closed at $162.88 on July 9, 2025, and went on to gain as much as 44.7% within a year. From $167.02 on September 5, 2025, its best gain was 41.1%. Both gains ran to the same closing high, $235.74. Neither of those two dates is among the five visits counted below, which use a different test: a visit counts only when the stock falls to within 5% of today’s price from above, at least 21 trading days after the one before.
The stock fell back to this price five times in the two years to November 10, 2026. Two of those visits went on to rise 20% before falling 5%, and three fell 5% first. Those three slides all reached 5% down in late March 2026. Yet a visit on March 20, 2026 went on to rise 20% by April 24.
What You Could Make If NVIDIA Stock Bounces
If bought today, $10,000 of NVIDIA stock would be worth $12,420 if it climbed back to resistance, the price where two earlier rallies stalled. If it matched the typical gain of the two 2025 rallies, the same $10,000 would become $14,290. The stock would thus need a smaller rise to reach resistance than those rallies delivered. Two lower levels, at $185.55 and $192.54, stand in the way first. Yet most recent visits to this price slid first, and NVIDIA’s sales growth over the past twelve months is below its own three-year average.
| Level | Price | From today |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance: rallies stalled here 2 times | $209.77 | 24.2% higher |
| Today | $168.89 | Reference price |
| Support is broken below | $160.45 | 5.0% lower |
| Next support below | $128.91 | 23.7% lower |
How Strong Is NVIDIA’s Business Right Now?
NVIDIA’s sales growth has sped up for four straight quarters, but management expects its gross margin to slip. Year-on-year revenue growth rose from 73.2% in fiscal Q4 2026 to 85.2% in fiscal Q1 2027. Revenue of $96.2 billion in fiscal Q2 2027 was up 105.9% from a year earlier. Over the twelve months to July 26, 2026, though, revenue grew 83.4%, under the 116.5% average of NVIDIA’s last three twelve-month periods, which include 194.7% growth in the year to July 2024. For fiscal Q3 2027, management guided revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, with its new Vera Rubin systems about 20% of data center revenue. Data center revenue was $89 billion in fiscal Q2 2027, up 18% from the quarter before, management said.
Gross margin is where NVIDIA is weaker. It was 75% in fiscal Q2 2027. On the August 26, 2026 call, management said memory prices had risen more than it expected, and it guided gross margin to 74%, plus or minus 50 basis points, for fiscal Q3 2027. It expects margins to bottom in fiscal Q4 2027 in the 71% to 72% range before settling at 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028, as price increases take effect.
The risk is a fall below $160.45, where support counts as broken. NVIDIA’s profits could suffer from the lower gross margin, and management expects supply to remain a bottleneck at least through the end of fiscal 2028. If support does break, the next support below is $128.91, which is 23.7% under today’s price.
What To Watch In NVIDIA’s Next Report
NVIDIA stock has bounced from this price before, and its sales growth has kept speeding up through the latest quarter. But management expects gross margin to keep falling through fiscal Q4 2027. NVIDIA’s fiscal Q3 2027 gross margin, against management’s 74% guide, is the number to watch when the company reports in November 2026.
Still Holding NVIDIA After The Drop?
Selling a fallen stock can still bring a tax bill if you bought long ago, and holding keeps the risk. A free 30-minute strategy review with our partner advisory firm covers a floor under a large position and a lower-tax unwind.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.