Management Raised the Bar For NVIDIA Stock; Does The Chart Agree?

Since management forecast higher sales for its fiscal third quarter on August 26, 2026, NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has gained 8.3%, compared with 1.1% for the S&P 500. A forecast is simply an expectation from executives, but trading charts reveal whether buyers are actually backing that outlook six weeks later. So is the uptrend in the stock still in place, or has it begun to fade?

Is NVIDIA Stock Still In An Uptrend?

The stock meets the two conditions chart readers follow most. NVIDIA last closed at $230.48, sitting above its average closing price of $221.25 over the last 50 trading days. The average over the last 200 trading days is lower still at $201.60. When a stock price stays above both averages and the shorter baseline exceeds the longer one, technical analysts consider the uptrend intact.

However, most of that gain materialized all at once. NVIDIA stock rose 7.0% over the two sessions surrounding its earnings release, compared with a 0.7% return for the S&P 500. That initial jump priced in both the latest quarterly results and the updated forecast. Since then, the stock has added 1.2% against 0.4% for the index, maintaining its initial gain without adding much to it.

NVIDIA Expects More Revenue And A Thinner Gross Margin

For the third quarter of fiscal 2027, management forecast revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. NVIDIA reported $96 billion for the second quarter, making the new forecast about 12.5% higher in a single quarter. This represents a sequential step up rather than a revision to an earlier estimate.

A new product launch is part of this outlook. Management noted that production shipments of Vera Rubin began in August, and it expects Vera Rubin to account for about 20% of data center revenue in the third quarter. The data center segment remains the core of the business, generating $89 billion in the second quarter and driving most of NVIDIA’s overall sales.

One metric, however, is moving in the opposite direction. Management forecast a third-quarter gross margin of about 74%, dropping below the 75% NVIDIA reported for the second quarter. Executives expect that margin to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter, noting that memory prices had risen more than they expected.

What Could Move NVIDIA Stock From Here?

The next catalyst will likely be the company’s third-quarter earnings call, scheduled for November 17. Investors will be watching closely to see if revenue meets the latest target. NVIDIA cleared its last hurdle, reporting second-quarter revenue of $96 billion after guiding for $91 billion. According to management, overall growth has accelerated for the fourth quarter in a row. Revenue grew 105.9% from a year earlier in the latest quarter, an increase from the 62.5% pace recorded three quarters before.

Looking ahead, improving supply is what could let the business grow faster. Management indicated that growth would be significantly higher if supply were not limited, but executives expect supply to remain a bottleneck at least through the end of fiscal 2028. The company’s early forecast for that year calls for revenue growth of about 70%. Buyers appear to be pricing in some of that future expansion already, as NVIDIA stock trades at 28.9 times earnings, compared with 21.5 for the S&P 500.

A revenue beat in November, or an earlier-than-expected easing of supply constraints, would show the business is expanding faster than NVIDIA has guided. Conversely, a gross margin that falls further than projected would indicate that memory costs are taking more of each sale than the company planned. On the trading side, a close below the 50-day average would offer the first sign that the trend established since the release has weakened.

Does This Mean You Should Act On NVDA?

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