What’s Going To Happen With NVIDIA Stock Soon?
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NVIDIA (NVDA) stock fell 9.3% on November 5, 2026, marking its largest one-day drop in a year. Shareholders also face a strain management has already acknowledged. During its August 26, 2026 call, management said NVIDIA’s gross margin would get worse before it got better. Below are the reports and events most likely to move NVIDIA stock over the next six months.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Vera Rubin production shipments ramp up, and management expects growth in sales to hyperscalers to pick up again | fiscal Q3 2027 to fiscal Q4 2027 | In its favor |
| NVIDIA reports fiscal Q3 2027 results against a revenue guide of $108 billion, plus or minus 2% | November 2026 | Either way |
| Gross margin reaches its low point of 71% to 72% as memory prices keep rising | fiscal Q4 2027 | Against the stock |
| The Department of Justice probe of NVIDIA’s $12.9 billion purchase of Hugging Face | no date stated | Against the stock |
NVIDIA’s Fiscal Q3 2027 Results
NVIDIA is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2027 results on November 17, 2026. This will be the company’s first report since that August call. Management guided revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, compared with $96.2 billion in fiscal Q2 2027. The guide counts no data center sales to China. Management left those sales out of its outlook because of geopolitical uncertainty.
In fiscal Q2 2027, NVIDIA’s shipments of Hopper 200 products to customers in China came to less than 1% of its data center revenue. Revenue against that guide is the figure to watch in November 2026.
Memory Prices And NVIDIA’s Gross Margin
NVIDIA expects its gross margin to dip because of memory. Management said in August 2026 that memory prices had risen more than it expected and were still heading higher. Management guided gross margin to a low of 71% to 72% in fiscal Q4 2027, down from 75% in fiscal Q2 2027. For fiscal Q3 2027, it guided gross margin to 74%, plus or minus 50 basis points.
The drop matters at NVIDIA’s size. Each point of gross margin on its $303 billion of revenue over the past twelve months is worth about $3 billion a year. Management expects the margin to edge back up in fiscal 2028, as price increases NVIDIA has already set take effect. The gross margin NVIDIA reports for fiscal Q4 2027 is the figure to watch, with results expected in February 2027.
The Vera Rubin Rollout
NVIDIA began production shipments of Vera Rubin, the platform that follows Blackwell, in August 2026. Purchase orders are already in from every major hyperscaler. Management expected Vera Rubin to make up about 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3 2027. Data center revenue as a whole was $89 billion in fiscal Q2 2027.
NVIDIA also expects growth in sales to hyperscalers, the largest cloud companies, to pick up again in fiscal Q4 2027 as Vera Rubin supply grows. For now, management expects growth to come mainly from its NeoCloud, industrial and enterprise customers. The limit is supply rather than orders. Management expects supply to remain a bottleneck at least through the end of fiscal 2028. Growth in NVIDIA’s sales to hyperscalers is the measure to watch when it reports in February 2027.
Can You Hold NVIDIA Stock Through These Reports?
Owning the stock through these reports means being ready for a fall like the one it has just taken. The stock dropped 24.1% from its October 6, 2026 close to November 5, marking the largest drop of the past year. That fall took 22 trading sessions and came before either report.
Rattled by November 5? It has happened 21 times before. Here’s what came next.
If a second fall of that size would push you to sell, the holding is larger than you can carry through the November 2026 and February 2027 reports. Either way, those two reports are the dates to mark.
Who Is Watching Your Portfolio’s Risk When You’re Not?
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