Nvidia Stock To $129?
Part of our AI selloff guide. Start here: what the Nasdaq correction means for your money.
Follow the whole story: every piece in this series is on our AI storyline page.
The Nasdaq 100 closed Monday more than 10% below its Oct 6 peak, which is the textbook definition of a correction. The worst day was Friday, Oct 30, when chip stocks (the iShares Semiconductor ETF) fell about 8% after Amazon’s and Alphabet’s results and a weak profit forecast from Intel. By Wednesday the index had bounced to about 9% below its peak, but chip stocks fell another 3% that day. The fear behind the selloff is simple: JPMorgan expects about $900 billion of AI spending worldwide in 2026, and investors want to know when that money pays back.
| Company | Price | Last 5 days | Last month | Below 52-week high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel (INTC) | $58.27 | −39% | −51% | −59% |
| Marvell (MRVL) | $159.80 | −36% | −41% | −49% |
| Super Micro (SMCI) | $29.60 | −17% | −32% | −41% |
| Dell (DELL) | $372.36 | −25% | −34% | −37% |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | $325.48 | −7% | −8% | −32% |
| Micron (MU) | $795.23 | −19% | −26% | −34% |
| AMD (AMD) | $488.78 | −16% | −23% | −25% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $200.13 | −7% | −14% | −16% |
The stock at the center of AI spending is down the least. The deepest falls are company-specific or come after the biggest run-ups.
If this were purely a vote against AI spending, Nvidia, the biggest chip company and the one most tied to that spending, should be leading the way down. It isn’t. Intel lost more than a third of its value in five days after its own forecast. Micron and Dell are down hard, but both had more than doubled over the past year.
See more lines: 12-month returns, and how we read the table
12-month price changes to Nov 4: Micron +265%, Dell +141%, AMD +95%, Marvell +82%, Intel +57%, Nvidia +1%, Broadcom −8%, Super Micro −38%. Prices are the Wed Nov 4 close (Trefis market data). AMD closed Tue Nov 3, before its report, at $483.90. “Below 52-week high” is how far each stock sits under its highest close of the past year. A stock that more than doubled can fall 30% and still be up on the year; Micron is the clearest case.
Which Of These Drops Are Really About AI Spending?
Split the eight into two groups.
Company-specific. Intel fell on its own weak profit forecast, not on anyone’s AI budget. Its 39% five-day drop is the biggest in the table. Super Micro has been falling for a year (−38% over 12 months) for reasons that started before this selloff.
The payoff doubt. Memory (Micron), networking and optical chips (Marvell) and the companies that build AI servers (Dell, Super Micro) all sold off together after the big cloud companies reported. These businesses get paid first when data centers are built, so they’re the first to be marked down when investors worry that building slows. Marvell’s 36% five-day drop is the biggest of that group.
Nvidia and Broadcom sit in between. They are the biggest chip companies selling into AI spending, but they’ve held up best over the past five days (−7% each). That tells you the market isn’t yet betting that the spending stops. It’s betting that the spending gets more careful, and that the suppliers with the thinnest edge get squeezed first.
How Far Have Chip Stocks Fallen Before?
A lot further than this, usually. From late 2021 to late 2022, chip stocks (the iShares Semiconductor ETF) fell about 46% from their peak, and Nvidia fell about 66%. In late 2018, Nvidia lost more than half its value in about three months. In the 2000–2002 bust, many chip stocks fell by more than 80%: Intel about 82%, AMD about 93%. And it’s not only chips: Meta fell about 77% from its 2021 peak to its 2022 low, and it stayed profitable throughout.
Here’s what a 2022-sized fall (46% from the 52-week high) would mean for each stock today:
| Company | Price now | 52-week high | At a 2022-size drop (−46%) | Room left to fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel | $58.27 | ~$141 | ~$76 | Already past it |
| Marvell | $159.80 | ~$316 | ~$171 | Already past it |
| Super Micro | $29.60 | ~$50 | ~$27 | ~8% |
| Dell | $372.36 | ~$588 | ~$318 | ~15% |
| Broadcom | $325.48 | ~$482 | ~$260 | ~20% |
| Micron | $795.23 | ~$1,214 | ~$655 | ~18% |
| AMD | $488.78 | ~$649 | ~$351 | ~28% |
| Nvidia | $200.13 | ~$239 | ~$129 | ~35% |
The 52-week highs are each stock’s highest close of the past year. For Nvidia, a repeat of its own 2022 fall (−66%) would mean about $81 a share. That’s the outer edge, not a forecast. In 2022, the Fed was raising interest rates fast, from near zero to above 4%. That isn’t the main story today.
Here’s what this table means at home: if you own broad index funds, you own every one of these stocks, often on top of the ones you bought yourself. Chip stocks have fallen 46% to 66% before, in less than a year. If you have $1 million or more invested, a Trefis partner firm can show you how much of your portfolio rides on one industry.
What Did AMD Just Show?
That the slowdown investors fear hasn’t reached AMD’s order book. It reported after the close on Tuesday, Nov 3: third-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45%, against about $13.1 billion expected, and record data center revenue of $8.5 billion, up 97%. The number that mattered was the fourth-quarter guide: about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, against the roughly $16.3 billion analysts expected. CEO Lisa Su added that she expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027.
AMD closed Tuesday at $483.90, before the report, 25% below its 52-week high. After rising more than 4% in early trading Wednesday, it closed up only 1.0%, at $488.78, while Nvidia fell 3.2%. The market took it as good news for AMD, not yet as an all-clear for the group: AMD can grow by taking share even if total AI spending slows, and Nvidia, already far bigger than AMD, has less room to do that. What AMD’s guidance says about the slide, and whether the drop was overdone.
And What Must Nvidia Show Later In November?
Nvidia reports on Tuesday, Nov 17. It guided this quarter’s revenue to about $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. Nvidia is the real test of the payoff question because its customers are the companies doing much of that $900 billion of spending. If its outlook for next quarter keeps rising, the selloff in suppliers looks like a scare. If it flattens, the 2022 yardstick starts to apply to Nvidia too.
Two of the eight have already fallen as far as chip stocks did in 2022; Nvidia has fallen about a third of that far. The worst drops of the past five days are Intel’s own forecast and a reset in the suppliers that had run furthest. AMD’s beat-and-raise on Tuesday says its customers are still buying; whether the whole group avoids a 2022-style reset now rides on Nvidia’s report in about two weeks.
Related: how much of the market now rides on AI.
How Much Of Your Portfolio Is Really A Bet On AI Chips?
Corrections test concentration, not conviction. If you have $1 million or more invested, see how exposed your portfolio is to the AI trade in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.