Nvidia Stock’s Real Risk Isn’t China. It’s Power.
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Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House on Tuesday. Nvidia is worth about $4.95 trillion, and almost every rule that touches it was written by the White House, not Congress. That’s the first thing to know. A Democratic House can’t undo an executive decision past a veto. So what can it reach?
| What Washington touches | Where it stands | Can a Democratic House change it? |
|---|---|---|
| Chip sales to China | H200 allowed under license; Washington takes 25% of the sales | Pressure only; a ban needs a law |
| China in Nvidia’s forecast | Zero: the outlook assumes no China data-center revenue | Nothing left to cut |
| Chip tariffs | 25% on some advanced chips, with exemptions for U.S. data centers | Not past a veto |
| Power for data centers | 77% of Americans worry AI will raise power prices | Hearings, and voters in both parties |
China can’t hurt Nvidia’s numbers much more. The power bill can.
Nvidia shipped its first H200 chips to China in the quarter that ended in July. They were less than 1% of its $89 billion in data-center sales. Its forecast for the next quarter, $108 billion, counts no China data-center sales at all. On a normal trading day, Nvidia’s value moves by about $76 billion. One ordinary day is worth more than all of Nvidia’s China data-center sales last quarter.
See more lines: the China rules and the arithmetic
December 2025: the White House allowed H200 sales to approved Chinese buyers, with 25% of the revenue going to the U.S. government, up from 15% on the older H20 (as reported). Commerce published the license rules in January 2026. Beijing told its companies to shun the H20 and has been slow to approve H200 buying (as reported). Nvidia’s newest chips, Blackwell and Rubin, aren’t approved for China. Daily move: median daily move over the past year ≈ 1.5%, times $4.95 trillion ≈ $76 billion. China H200 sales: under 1% of $89 billion, so under $0.9 billion.
Wouldn’t Democrats Be Tougher On China?
Some would. China hawks in both parties dislike the H200 deal, and a Senate bill, the SAFE Act, would stop licenses for chips to China for at least 30 months. A Democratic House could hold hearings on the 25% cut and ask whether Washington should be taking a share of a company’s sales at all.
But a ban needs a law, and the President would veto one he doesn’t want. And here’s the twist: Nvidia’s forecast already assumes China buys no data-center chips. The worst case for China is roughly what investors are told to expect. A hawkish House can’t take away revenue Nvidia isn’t counting.
So Where Is Nvidia Exposed?
At the plug. AI runs on data centers, data centers run on power, and power bills are on the ballot. Electricity prices rose about 6.7% in 2025, and Goldman Sachs expected data centers to drive about 40% of the growth in demand. Ads mentioning data centers had cost over $45 million this year by August. Democrats are campaigning on it. So are many Republicans.
That’s what makes it different. China is a fight between the parties, and a veto settles it. Power bills are a fight both parties are on the same side of. It doesn’t need a sweep. It plays out in state utility boards and local permits, where Nvidia’s biggest customers need approval to build.
What Could A Democratic House Do About Power?
Not pass a law past a veto. But it can call hearings on who pays for new power plants and power lines. It gets a say over spending in the 2027 debt-limit fight. And it can keep the issue in the news for two years, which makes every local permit harder. Slower data-center builds mean slower chip orders, but with a delay of a year or more.
How Does This End?
Most likely, quietly. Nvidia is up just 1% over 12 months, down 10% in the past month, and 14% below its 52-week high. The market already treats it as a stock with something to prove. The next test isn’t Tuesday. It’s Nvidia’s earnings later this month, and whether its customers keep getting the power to plug in what they buy.
Watch the plug, not Beijing. China is already zero in Nvidia’s forecast, so a tougher Congress has little to take. The risk that survives any election result is the power bill, because voters in both parties want someone to answer for it.
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