What Could Stop NVIDIA Stock Over The Next Six Months?
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has returned 32% over the past six months, well ahead of the S&P 500. That run began near the bottom of its worst fall of the past year. In August 2026, management said rising memory costs will cut NVIDIA’s gross margin, the share of sales kept after production costs. At $303 billion of sales over the past year, each margin point is worth about $3 billion. The table shows what could stall that run over the next six months and when each event lands.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Vera Rubin, NVIDIA’s newest data center system, ramps up in volume | fiscal Q3 2027 | In its favour |
| Supply shortage limits how much NVIDIA can ship | now, and at least through the end of fiscal 2028 | Against the stock |
| NVIDIA reports fiscal Q3 2027 results | November 17, 2026 | Either way |
| Gross margin reaches its low as memory costs rise | fiscal Q4 2027 | Against the stock |
| NVIDIA’s price increases take effect | fiscal Q1 2028 | In its favour |
NVIDIA’s Fiscal Q3 Report Lands On November 17
NVIDIA reports its fiscal Q3 2027 results after the market closes on November 17, 2026. Management has guided revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.
The company began production shipments of Vera Rubin, its newest data center system, in August 2026. Management expects Vera Rubin to bring in about 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3 2027. On November 17, watch whether revenue clears the low end of that guide, about $106 billion. The same report will show how gross margin held up against rising memory costs.
The Memory Costs Squeezing NVIDIA’s Margin
Management expects gross margin to hit its low in fiscal Q4 2027, at 71% to 72%. It was 75% in fiscal Q2 2027. Memory is the cause: management said memory prices rose more than it had expected.
NVIDIA has already set price increases that take effect in fiscal Q1 2028. Management expects those higher prices to lift margin to 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028. On November 17, watch fiscal Q3 2027 gross margin against 73.5%, the low end of management’s gross margin guide for that quarter. A reading below that would mean the margin is falling faster than management planned.
Higher prices can lift the margin off its low. They cannot add chips when the whole supply chain is already stretched.
Can NVIDIA’s Supply Chain Build Enough Chips?
NVIDIA cannot build enough for now. Management expects supply to stay a bottleneck at least through the end of fiscal 2028. On the fiscal Q2 2027 call, management said its entire supply chain is stretched.
Management’s preliminary outlook is for revenue to grow about 70% in fiscal 2028. Management called that outlook supply-constrained. Demand without that limit would be a lot higher, management said.
Management expects sales to the largest cloud companies to speed up again in fiscal Q4 2027, as Vera Rubin supply grows. On November 17, watch whether management keeps its fiscal 2028 growth outlook. A lower figure could mean tighter supply or softer demand. Note which one management names.
If you hold NVIDIA stock, you will hold it through all three of these events. The stock has fallen hard within the past year.
How Much NVIDIA Stock Can You Hold Through This?
Only as much as you could leave alone through a 20% drop, the stock’s worst fall in the past year. NVIDIA stock took that loss between October 29, 2025, and March 30, 2026. Over that fall, a $10,000 stake became about $7,980.
Report days add swings in both directions. NVIDIA stock gained 7.0% over the two days around the August 2026 earnings call. It lost 4.1% over the two days around the February 2026 earnings call.
If a loss of that size would push you to sell, your position is too large for these dates. Size it so a repeat of that fall is a loss you could sit through. NVIDIA needs its margin to stop where management said it would, and revenue to land near its guide.
How To Act On NVDA?
