Up 15% Over The Last Month, NVIDIA Stock Could Continue Rallying

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NVIDIA

NVIDIA Corporation stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) is up almost 15% in the past month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up a little more than 3% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has risen 18% and 26%, outperforming the broader market on both occasions. This jump was largely a result of NVDA’s most recent FY ’22 earnings (NVDA’s fiscal year ends in January), which saw revenue rise strongly to $26.9 billion, up from $16.7 billion in FY ’21. Additionally, a much slower rise in operating expenses and COGS meant that operating income rose more than 2.2x to $10 billion in FY ’22. Combined with a roughly unchanged effective tax rate, EPS rose from$1.76 in FY ’21 to $3.91 in FY ’22, a more than 2x jump.

Now, is NVDA stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 68% chance of a rise in NVDA stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NVDA Stock Chance of Rise. Additionally, for details about NVDA’s revenue and comparison to peers, see NVIDIA (NVDA) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: NVDA 14%, vs. S&P500 3.4%; Outperformed market

(17% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • NVDA stock rose 14% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.4%
  • A change of 14% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 17% likelihood event, which has occurred 431 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 431 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 295 occasions
  • This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NVDA 26%, vs. S&P500 7.9%; Outperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • NVDA stock gained 26% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 7.9%
  • A change of 26% or more over ten trading days is a <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 21 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 21 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 13 occasions
  • This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NVDA 18%, vs. S&P500 5.3%; Outperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next five days)

  • NVDA stock rallied 18% over a five-day trading period ending 3/21/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up around 5.3% over this period.
  • A change of 18% or more over five trading days (one week) is a <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 22 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 22 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 14 occasions
  • This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 NVDA Return 9% -10% 895%
 S&P 500 Return 3% -6% 101%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 3% -8% 263%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/22/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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